Chaos occurs when events break out their usual bounds, and it feels like markets are skirting on the edge! Relax. It’s normal in periods of acute change – as are happening now. The Game of Markets across long, medium and short-term horizons is constantly changing – I guess that’s what makes them interesting!

Margaret Thatcher would have celebrated her 100th Birthday yesterday. She is widely considered the defining British politician of the post-war era. But it was a very different time, and we should not blind ourselves to the long-term consequences of Thatcherism. Decisions made over 35 years ago affect Britain today, and we exist in a very much less friendly and uncertain world.

What’s not to like about markets which keep going up? Lots of participants are increasingly certain the current upside momentum is unstoppable. Some of us suffer from the problem of thinking too much and wondering if its sustainable. Being a bear can feel very lonely.

Friday August 1st might go down in history as the day the US Treasury Market died. There was an art to reading US Data. It relied on trust. Now that is broken – if you can’t trust the data, what can you trust? Other govt bond markets are available.

Powell was sacked and then he wasn’t. The market tumbled but swiftly bounced. It was another day of training markets for disruption. The reality is the ongoing shenanigans are undermining confidence in the Fed ahead of what could be a very testing time for the US economy when Trump policies start to bite.

Never has the contrast in economic outlook and market expectations been so divided on either side of the pond. In Washington, joy as Trump’s tax cuts are enacted. In London, unremitting gloom and despair. But, hey-ho, Labour is going to fix the NHS! Give me strength….

Trump has deliberately escalated domestic protests in California into a test of National Will by federalising the Marines. What will it mean for markets? Global Investors will become become increasingly concerned at how distracted Trump is as the Bond Market looks increasingly unsustainable.

The market is full of noise, but the facts are more important. The data suggests slowdown is coming. The noise is getting louder as doubts around spending, bonds, inflation and economic slowdown mount. And to cap it all, a fight between Elon Musk and Donald Trump could massively destabilise US Politics.

The yield on Sovereign Bonds is the “risk-free” rate from which relative risk in any economy is priced. There is a crisis across all developed nations in the quantum of debt they now face servicing in a global economy where risks are rising and there is a significant threat of stagflation. It’s time for nations to get aggressive about Liability Management of their outstanding debt.

Howls of pain as US markets sink through 200 day moving averages and into correction phase! It’s increasingly clear Trump Version 2.1 still contains significant bugs and 404 errors. Sadly, we can’t simply reboot the OS and hope it starts ups again. Markets will just have to adjust to the new Trump reality.. and it’s likely to hurt. A lot.