Putin’s supposed cleverness haunts markets. How much harder will he squeeze Europe’s energy crisis? How will Russia change the geo-political order? Will Italy’s coming election be the crisis that breaks the Euro? We give Russia too much credit – it’s a weak nation that can only get weaker.
Pretty bleak headlines this morning – sentiment is crashing. Excellent! In crisis there is opportunity. Where and what are they? For clues, look to how the authorities can address the looming crisis!
Everyone is balancing inflation, economic numbers and this week’s Jackson Hole Central Bank smooze-a-thon to guess markets. What if we are looking at the wrong things – and economic divergence, income and wealth inequality and unravelling domestic politics are the critical factors?
The outlook for the UK looks increasingly grim. There are few reasons to hope a new government can reverse the mounting consumer fears, stagflation and the growing sense of decline.
Financial fraud has been around as long as money, but FOMO and opportunistic shysters are exploiting regulatory inaction to exploit the credulity of savers like never before. It’s time for Regulators to wake up and hang a few bad-uns “pour encourage les autres” and make clear Alternative market risks!
Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.
The pace of US CPI inflation moderated slightly, but it’s too early for the market to conclude rate hikes are over. There are many imbalances still to resolve – especially in consumer credit. Meanwhile, the new UK premier’s clumsy attempts to blame the BOE raise questions.
Chips are a critical component of global supply chains – there are significant geopolitical risks inherent in the concentration of semi-conductor production in Taiwan. However, an even bigger geopolitical risk may have been triggered by the FBI raiding Trump’s lair in Mar-a-Lago.
So many contradictions abound in current markets, but it’s possible to cut through the noise to discern some probable direction. The old adage of being confident while others are fearful looks one way to approach the current confusion.
Biden’s Tax and Climate Bill is the closest thing to a grown-up energy transition plan we’ve seen in the West. There is a significant risk ESG fundamentalism trips up efforts to reach carbon neutrality – but there are signs pragmatism will win out.
Disclaimer
This publication is protected by US, UK and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No License is granted except for the subscriber’s personal use. Rights will be pursued.
The Morning Porridge is not investment advice. It is market commentary based on discussions and information gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee is given for its accuracy or completeness. It is not an offer to buy, sell or solicit investments or securities. The author may have a position in companies or institutions discussed in this commentary.
If you want to know what’s really happening and why.. welcome to the Porridge.
Financial Market Insights for Thinkers!
© Morning Porridge | All Rights Reserved | Website Design & Support by Orange Pixel
