Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.
Elections are a wonderful way to unravel the risks of political incompetency by letting the people, rather than politicians, decide. Meanwhile, the collapse of another thing in Crypto comes as no surprise. If it did, consider a career change.
US Midterms were a mild win for Republicans, a loss for Democrats, a Big Win for Democracy and a Massive Defeat for Donald Trump. That’s all great news for markets and the global economy.
COP27 is about the politics of global energy – energy being the lifeblood of growth and prosperity. The Ukraine war’s outcome is also about energy: can Europe withstand Russia’s General Winter and coordinated assaults on its’ economy and political stability.
US Mid-Terms will dominate the news this week. Gridlocked US politics might be good in terms of zero legislative surprises, but polarisation will punish stocks and diminish the US over the long-term.
The Bank of England laid out bleak scenarios for the UK economy – but the outlook and long term future will be worse because the Government has “straight-jacketed” its budget options down to Austerity – which will lead to economic disaster. There is an alternative!
The Fed roiled markets over the pace and scale of rate hikes, but ultimately markets are about growth. The big issues were not thinking about enough are global recession, slowing trade, and the threats China’s evolution into a Surveillance State raise for future growth.
The markets are distracted by a host of crises. Somewhere in amongst it all is clarity.. but for the time being its noise and nonsense!
Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent, confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.
Big Tech “growth” stocks suffered a price-check this week as economic reality bit, but they face much more pressure than just short-term cost and sales problems. Long-Term, new businesses and opportunities are evolving to eat their lunch, and leave them behind.
Disclaimer
This publication is protected by US, UK and International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No License is granted except for the subscriber’s personal use. Rights will be pursued.
The Morning Porridge is not investment advice. It is market commentary based on discussions and information gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee is given for its accuracy or completeness. It is not an offer to buy, sell or solicit investments or securities. The author may have a position in companies or institutions discussed in this commentary.
If you want to know what’s really happening and why.. welcome to the Porridge.
Financial Market Insights for Thinkers!
© Morning Porridge | All Rights Reserved | Website Design & Support by Orange Pixel
