The US election remains too close for the pundits to call, but from a trading perspective the contrarian Trump loses trade is well underway. Who knows what the rest of this week will bring, but it’s unlikely to be certainty or stability.

Time this US election was over. The Morning Porridge predicts a narrow Harris Win, followed by lots of meaningless noise. To secure it, Harris could try the Lysistrata playbook – with the majority of American women supporting her, maybe it’s time they remind Trump supporting partners of where their best interests might lie…

Today is Halloween, when the lines between this world and others, the past and future, alternative timelines and other realities, cross and oft merge into each other.. at least according to Celtic legend. This morning it just so happens a Morning Porridge from October 2026 has crossed the divide and snuck into my inbox….

Tesla’s spectacular rally this week shows why it’s the stock to short if you think Harris will win. As the world becomes less stable, Deftech is the next new thing. But, the adoption of new battlespace tech is being slowed by bureaucracy, Primes and dumb thinking – factors common to every government and business.  

Bond markets reflect facts. Equities are about stories. There is a shift in markets underway – where are rates, inflation and politics taking us? Traders want to see certainty – and that will be reflected in bond rates.

The UK economy feels like Gormenghast. Labour wants to balance the books – but will just keep running to get no-where fast. We need an honest appraisal of the problem; a root and branch creative destruction of the bureaucracy of state. The Civil Service needs to learn to be agile and fail fast.

US polls show the election is too close to call. Suddenly we are being bombarded with “evidence” Trump is winning from online gambling site odds. Interesting, but nonsense. Polymarket’s users are not analogous with the electorate. Its also owned by Peter Theil – who maybe has a vested interest in Trump’s victory.

The US election remains too close to split. In light of the negativity towards former President Trump in the mainstream press, I thought it might redress the balance if the Red Team were given a chance to explain their perspective. (Ahem..)

One month till the US election – how prepared are markets for what comes next? Who will win? In the short-term the election will change little around fractured US politics and the strength of the economy – long term it may hasten the end of America as global hegemon.

The market keeps on rolling upwards, despite it being a month till what might be a make or break moment. Isn’t anyone else worried? Are we doomed to constantly repeat the mistakes of the past? Or should markets just shrug and get on with making money?