7 Reasons Harris will win the US Election
Blain’s Morning Porridge, 1st Nov 2024
On this Sceptred Isle set in a silver sea, we consider being a bad-loser the depth of depravity.
Time this US election was over. The Morning Porridge predicts a narrow Harris Win, followed by lots of meaningless noise. To secure it, Harris could try the Lysistrata playbook – with the majority of American women supporting her, maybe it’s time they remind Trump supporting partners of where their best interests might lie…
Next week will be interesting. I reckon Harris is going to win.
Back in April I wrote: “Whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the Presidency.” It’s that simple. My intel says Harris is marginal to win it. Markets are set up for Trump. They will take a hit. (I’m short Tesla and Bitcon.) I predict a Riot. (Again.) Trump will react badly. Elon Musk’s Twitter-X will meltdown in fury. Hard Hats to the ready.
The markets taking a spanking might serve them right. Over the past four years the US economy has significantly outperformed. The stock market has grown dramatically more than under Trump, and wages are rising. US Voters are supposed to be passing their judgement on economic performance. Guess what? Biden’s economy was stronger and created more wealth than Trump’s! The problem is much of that wealth has not flowed to Trump’s MAGA supporters – it went to the Tech Lords who are now supporting him!
Markets and voters are an ungrateful bunch. To be fair – few governments will survive an inflation spike like we saw in 2022 or higher rates. Incumbents this year have been punished across all democracies. Yet, it’s an undeniable truth most Americans are better off today than they were in 2020.
Neither Harris or Trump are good candidates. With Trump we know exactly what we will get. At least with Harris, there is a chance she will listen, learn, adapt and become an ok, maybe even good President. Under Trump there will be no national reconciliation. Under Harris there is at least a small chance.
For the last few months I’ve been anticipating a Trump victory. I’ve based that on talking to Republican chums explaining why Trump can’t be beaten, and Democrats explaining why Trump is beating himself (rather than how they were winning). I’ve listened to the podcasts and read the polls. I know most say the margins of error are too close to call. I bought into the narrative Trump had established a lead with the key demographics, and would hold them.
Seven factors have changed my mind this week.
First, I smell weakness in the Republican camp. Although we should know the US election result early Wednesday, it’s clear the Republicans are setting up to contest the result, already alleging fraud and deception in the critical Pennsylvania ballot. That means we could face weeks more of political bickering.
Remember 2000 – how crazy it got. It ain’t over till it’s over we were told, but I sense growing Republican doubts on some of the claims already being made. When good, ole, honest Republicans are calling to me to distance themselves from some of Musk’s outrageous claims about stollen ballots, you have to wonder. Once you start preparing for failure, you know you have a non-zero likelihood of loss. Trump has to be careful here – if he loses, he will still face the Georgia election interference case. If he is perceived to be trying to obstruct the vote again, it can only go even more badly for him.
Elon Musk has weaponised Twitter on behalf of Trump. Yesterday (Thursday) he launched the Electoral Integrity Community – a feed for users can share “incidents of voter fraud or irregularities observed in the 2024 election.” I have blocked Musk, but I still got that in my notifications. (I am still getting Musk as well!) The top post yesterday was a rambling description by a guy who went to cast his early vote and was asked to fill in a ballot and put it in a ballot box; “VERY SKETCHY!” was his shouty accusation. The feed is purposely designed to spread fear and conspiracy theory and undermine the election’s integrity. Most Americans, not all, will see past it.
Second, Garbage-Gate will have consequences. Puerto Ricans are rightly furious to hear their Island defined in such derogatory terms – and they are a significant number of votes in each swing state. Sure, Biden referred to the deplorables Trump has surrounded himself with as Garbage, but Trump’s efforts to re-paint that as an offence against all Republican voters is not sticking. (Trump hardly describes his rivals in polite terms.) If anything, Trumps antics in a high-vis vest redirects attention back to the original insult.
Third, only one demographic really counts. Forget the analysis of the Black, Hispanic Muslim or Jewish trends, or even getting the youth vote out, (all of which are important), but the clearest factor in the election is women are generally pro-Harris while men lean towards Trump. The numbers show women care more. Women are more committed Harris supporters than men supporting Trump.
Despite what lefty-media would have us believe, not all men supporting Trump are palaeolithic Trumptard Red-necks. Most of them are sane, rational and love their wives or partners. I wonder how many Americans have heard of Lysistrata, the Greek comedy where the women force the men to end the Peloponnesian War…. by withholding sex. This weekend… if the Democrats were smart, they’d be urging every woman in America to exert their power and agency over their partners regarding this matter.
(Yes, I know this sounds terribly sexist. She-who-is-Mrs-Blain and I discussed this. She is a conservative feminist, yet she would consider “Kissing for Kamala” (ahem) a perfectly legitimate ploy to employ against partners showing too much regard for Trump.)
As for Trump promising to protect women, “whether they like it not”, let’s not even go there….
A happy wife = a happy life.
Fourth, its increasingly clear to Republican strategists they’ve failed to bounce up the numbers. They know how wide the gap between what their publicists and Elon Musk have been screaming on the airwaves and Twitter really is. They hoped the incessant barrage of pro-Trump election noise; claiming his clear momentum was proven by bogus on-line gambling meaning he was ahead by miles, or bogus polls, commissioned by right-wing agencies and groups, showing him winning, would translate into rising real poll numbers.
It hasn’t happened. In the real, credible polls, Trump remains stuck a point behind Harris, level pegging at best. The election strategists know their attempt to bounce up the numbers has failed. It’s now increasingly clear they’ve been fooling themselves and the Trump faithful about how strong Trump was – as that realisation sinks in, their despondency is now spreading around the whole campaign – explaining the rumours about tension the Pennsylvania campaign HQ yesterday. The momentum behind Harris is slow, but increases every time Trump get’s angered by a tough question and says something stupid.
Fifth, even on-line gambling sites have stopped trending for Trump. Let’s analyse the key swing states:
- Trump has a tiny lead in Arizona (11 votes), while Harris is marginal in Nevada (6 votes). They are too close to call.
- Harris is ahead in Wisconsin, and in Michigan. That gives her 25 of the 44 votes she needs to win. She needs 19 votes to win.
- Trump leads in North Carolina and Georgia, giving him 32 of the 51 votes he needs. Trump needs 19 votes to win.
- With the critical 19 votes to get either candidate to 270, Pennsylvania is literally The Keystone State.
Pennsylvannia could win either contender the Presidency. At the moment it’s a toss-up. Harris leads in the suburbs, Trump in the countryside. Yet, the rumours, and factor 4 above, say Trump’s team know they are losing. The fact they are already raising electoral fraud issues may work against them – although its being presented as an attempt to make sure voters come out to “stop the [imagined] steal.”
Sixth, is the reality most Trump voters are already fully committed. Non-Trump supporters do not to believe the last election was stolen by Biden. 1/3rd of Republican voters don’t believe it. Heck, most Republicans I speak with don’t believe it. They are not going to attract new voters with new lies. In contrast Harris attracts swing voters repelled by Trump, rather than ones particularly attracted to her. The Republicans may be shooting themselves in the proverbial foot by raising new Big Steal lies ahead of the actual vote. I have been assured by one firebranding Republican the Democrats have done nothing but perfect their electoral rigging since 2020. Of course they have.. have another cup of tea.
Seventh is how wrong the polls have been in the past. In 2022 they predicted a Red Wave of Republicans would overturn the Senate. Didn’t happen – Trump’s candidates did more poorly than expected across the slate. In the past polls under-reported Trump. Now they appear to underreport the Democrats. Why?
- Trump supporters believe it’s very, very important they loudly tell everyone they are Trump supporters and why. They worship Trump as a saviour because he brings meaning and community to the American’s left behind in the age of financialisation. They are happy to talk to pollsters.
- Harris supporters are not necessarily voting for Harris. Many are voting against Trump. They don’t want to explain that to pollsters. They are often embarrassed Republicans. Few red-blooded males in conservative counties will publicly admit they support women’s rights and abortion. Many consider Trump something of a clown, but don’t want their MAGA hat wearing neighbours, colleagues and friends to know it.
It’s possible that works the other way as well: one chum told me there is a Trump sticker on his car, but it’s only there because his daughter is too young to understand it or bawl him out over it. His wife won’t drive it. I should send her tickets to a very funny Greek play from the 4th Century BC. That’ll teach him.
Markets are pricing a narrow Trump win. According to some of the utter claptrap I read from the different reality that is Crypto-World, 49% of American voters will be voting in favour of the party doing most to support crypto-trading. Really? If that’s what matters to most US voters, then…
This weekend I am off to celebrate someone trying to blow up the Houses of Parliament in 1605. It will be fun…
Out of time, have a great weekend, and don’t worry.. things are never as bad as we fear..
Bill Blain
Author of the Morning Porridge, founder of Wind Shift Capital
6 Comments
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Too close to call? All down to a handful of swing voters? Looks like the US election and the future of the West might be decided by just one family in Pennsylvania…!
That’s about the truth of it… It looks like niether party will win without the Keystone State. It could be as tight as tight.. but I get the sense Harris is underpolling. Its more than spidey-senses telling me she’s ahead. Watching market, I get the sense traders are no longer all-in on the Trump Trade.
Funny thing is… my great-uncle was a Pennsylvaian.. ran-away to sea from Glasgow as a boy, and ended up in the USA. Uncle Jack was an all-out Wobbly – Workers of the World – till his dying day, yet rejoiced in making lots of money in America and had a big house and land. My eldest is named for him..
I think by this point Bill everyone is talking their own book?
Clearly too close to call, but conflicting news abounds.
Apparently Kamala has pulled most of her advertising from North Carolina this week. The assumption being she knows she’s already lost that one.
In terms of “it’s the economy stupid” I fear that you have contradicted yourself a little.
You say that the economy has boomed under Biden, but then clarify that in fact it is the stock market that has boomed and filled Tech lords pockets.
It’s doubtful that wages have kept pace with “real” inflation in the US and the jobs creation numbers are all fictitious (marked down every month one month after publication) and a deep dive suggests that any new jobs since 2019 are either taken by immigrants (ooh er) or by people who already have a job taking a second one to make ends meet!
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-replacement-job-shock-13-million-native-born-americans-just-lost-their-jobs-replaced
(I know I know, tin foil hat fake news etc.)
If the people affected by these economic realities really exist then if they are listening to Bill I don’t think that they will be voting for Joe (Ed. Strikethrough please) Kamala?
Particularly as lots of opinion polls suggest that most voters ARE still listening to Bill on that front.
I have no book on politics as such ( :) ). My shorts are based on how I think the market will react to Trump not winning…
There is too much rumour and sigh… strum et drang.. whatever..
But weighing it up is something I felt I had to do.
Checking the economic numbers is easy. US GDP has soared in last 4 years. Stock market is up near 60%. Both these numbers trump Trump (sic). But there is more pain from higher rates and inflation – which is why the incumbent party is at risk.
I don’t think the economy is what the debate is about. Its Trump. Simple as. If I was an American, and it was a conventional candidate standing i’m pretty sure I’d be saying the Dems have had their go. Time to give the Reds a chance. But that’s not what’s on offer. The offer is Trump. THat means questionable economic policies (which you have to expect from any vote), but also the potential risks to the constitution and the US as global hegemon.
Strange world indeed.
A thought: We have never had a woman president. We have never had a woman president of color.
2 wins for the price of one!