Its neck and neck in the US election. Trump promises to MAGA through tariffs, autocracy, spending and tax cuts. But the core problem behind increasing polarisation is rising inequality – undermining the fundamentals of the American dream and justice.

Last night’s US presidential debate – does it matter who won? The issue remains: what will the respective policies of Trump or Harris mean for the US and the Global Economy. The election remains too close to call.

Rates, Inflation, Deficits, the Dollar and the future of everything might just depend on how Tuesday’s televised US Election Debate goes? There will be a winner and a loser. Next week’s Fed Meeting will be more nuanced – but could it ultimately be as important over the long-term?

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump may catalyse global players to walk away from the apparent instability and uncertainty this US election looks to be leading to. Volatility, distrust and division may well multiply.

The UK election will contain few surprises but leaves the new government massive problems to solve. Biden’s inevitable withdrawal from the US Presidential race adds new uncertainty to the political mix – and may obscure some the critical economic issues.

Markets should be relieved at the US reaching a bipartisan deal on Ukraine and Israel, but will likely be fixated on the current stock market wobble – which could turn sour. The real issue is how the weekend US deal clearly focuses the US vs China, and that has massive market and economic implications.

The US Presidential Election is the most important market/political event this year – but boils down to how a mere 170,000 Americans in key states and demographies will vote on Nov 5th. What they are thinking on the day will determine how markets play out. Understanding the election mechanics is key to spotting the opportunities.

The US Primaries confirm its likely to be Biden vs Trump. While short-term markets don’t really care, it’s going to be a massive distraction and noise for investors deeply concerned at the future. While everyone else is panicked – that’s when opportunities emerge!

Fitch threw a spanner into the works last night downgrading the US – but they were right to do so. Political risks in the US and UK – both are approaching peak electoral cycle crises points  – are rising and the disinformation wars will ensure it gets… fruity.