Sometimes you just have to laugh. The Tariff Judgement against Trump raises elevated Chaotic Tantrum risks in Treasuries, while markets fear what wobbles in private credit might conceal. Everything in markets are connected – when something cracks in credit, someone somewhere else will start screaming!

Sometimes you have to laugh. Tariffs have been the cornerstone of Trump’s economic miracle, allowing him to deflect, discombobulate and distract voters from economic truths. Now the NY Fed says tariffs are a consumption tax – even MAGA voters will be worried as the Mid-Terms approach.

The Gaza deal is an extraordinary win for President Trump. Banging heads together worked – and may have created conditions for the Middle East to move towards reconciliation. But, we had another “judder” moment as the trade conflict he triggered with China threatens to overturn the USA’s economic resilience.

Donald Trump has made an example out of Canada: a 35% tariff rate will show these damn Canadians! Probably a mistake. He reminded the world how capricious he is. It will remind markets that Trump and certainty don’t go hand in hand. It leaves the UK in an embarrassing spot.

The Market Commentariat feared the worst when Trump took office. Liberation Day confirmed their worst fears – global market and economic meltdown on trade mayhem seemed inevitable. But Trump has played a blinder of a trade game. He has surprised to the upside. Will it last?

Trade tensions are set to dominate this week – particularly for Europe and Japan. While Trump upsets his allies, the global nexus is moving to the wealth concentration in South East Asia and the future evolution of tech – nothing lasts forever.

Donald Trump’s BBC interview was… “surprising”. It was Trump, but elegiac? It won’t change the economic reality. The market is living in today – assuming the consequences of Trump policies will be limited. If they hit hard – which economy will suffer most? The USA or the UK?

This morning’s Porridge is given over to what my chum Rob Hillman’s modelling of the Pandemic economy teaches us about the unpredictable consequences of Trump’s Tariffs. Chaotic, but we are more resilient than we might expect. And very likely to backfire on Trump!

The irresistible force of Trump has hit the immovable rock of Economic and Market Reality. The inconsistencies of Trump’s tariff policies - the centre-plank of his economic understanding - have been exposed as bogus. It begs the question – What Next? Which is why markets are braced for even more dislocation.

Trump’s supporters think he just played a blinder of masterstroke reversing tariffs. Those of us with clearer minds and an understanding of finance know the truth – Trump lost. The bond market punched him hard between the eyes.