The bond bear market looks set to deepen as rising energy prices threaten to keep inflation sticky. The way bonds impact the economy is more complex than most understand – it’s not  just interest rates, but how inflation, and growth limit policy choices.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 2nd  2024: The Energy crisis in [...]

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions are great fun, but the reality is 2024 is going to be about Elections, Oil and Energy Prices, Conflict and how China plays these three forces. China will dominate 2024 – for all the wrong reasons.

What does the Rugby World Cup tell us about markets? Expect the unexpected? Ignore nothing and don’t bet on favourites? Perhaps.. As the geopolitical threats pile upon each other, it’s time for caution. Forwards win games, but backs stop it being lost!

It was a disastrous weekend for UK energy strategy as the biting cold and lack of wind demonstrated the fallacy of wind as “the” renewable solution. Energy security requires predictable power. Meanwhile, Central Bank mull rate hikes and implications for dollar strength.

The last few days have confirmed we are in a Global Economic Energy War. It is remaking the global order – and will have significant long-term effects on Global Markets. As the sides shift, there will be winners and losers.

The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?

Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.

The world is watching for signs confirming global recession, so naturally markets have rallied (!). Political instability is resolved to be replaced with some bleak truths and spending choices. So.. steady at the wheel, nothing to worry about then?

After the brutal lessons of April, May will set the tone for a new market – lots of threats, but full of opportunity.