In Bonds there is truth. While government bond yields have risen some 40-50 basis points since the Iran War, and yield curves have steepened, we are not in crisis territory yet. However, the risks of “higher for longer” rates, and sustained inflation have risen. These will impact credit markets and potentially trigger a cascading corporate crisis – leading to all kinds of hell that governments and central banks are now ill-equipped to deal with.

 There is no stopping a market believing what it wants to believe. Tariffs, Trade Wars, Credit Cockroaches, BTC delusions, this market has it all, yet everyone is still dancing. Best thing to do might be to “Catflap” – walking away without saying anything to anyone.

The fact the US is almost certain to be plunged into a unresolvable recession by the summer, doesn’t mean Trump will be pressured into recanting his economic heresies. Maga voters look likely to double down on him! Meaning an even deeper problems for US firms trying to retain the illusion of their current inflated valuations.

Fitch threw a spanner into the works last night downgrading the US – but they were right to do so. Political risks in the US and UK – both are approaching peak electoral cycle crises points  – are rising and the disinformation wars will ensure it gets… fruity.

Fears of a full-on Commercial Real Estate Crisis are mounting as rising rates, a dearth of credit and a record redemption schedule combine into a perfect storm – but the market is already expecting it, so what will be the credit event or no-see-um that tiggers a market meltdown?