England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s happening, that we fight it, and acknowledge our strengths and weaknesses, and that unity wins!

The global economy is inevitably slowing from the deepening Hormuz oil shock. The Americans intend to press on despite the rising costs. While the global economy burns, President Trump is mulling multiple plans to achieve his version of victory. The rest of the World is waking to the reality this war is damaging their economic interests, and wondering how to mitigate the effects.

There are times when the course of history takes on a momentum of its own, most often in periods of conflict around hegemonic change – as exist today. This year’s Munich Security Conference will address stressed and fractured global alliances – while markets should be figuring out how conflict risks have risen and potential outcomes worsened.

Concepts about global law and order were left by the wayside over the weekend – Trump’s administration delivered what it said it would in terms of America First, Western Hemisphere focus. Do Venezuela and Iran raise or diminish the risks of Global Conflict in 2026. What comes next?

2026 Outlooks contain rosy predictions for stock market upside, calmer bond markets, the triumph of AI, and even a few who still say Bitcoin will rule us all. But the major Macro risk will be global trade – what happens as China and the USA face off? Trump has fractured the Western Alliances even as China’s trade and military strength give it all the options. What will Emperor Xi choose to do?

The new US National Security Strategy (NSS) revealed last week confirms just how much the world has changed. It was a kick in the teeth for Europe and leaves the door ajar on Taiwan. It’s unlikely to foster stability. It increases the pressure on Europe to swiftly rearm, and unify its defence and deterrence capabilities. For America – it raises fundamental questions about its declining power, strength, might and economic outlook.

Trump described Fed Head Jay Powell as "stupid" for not easing rates – Powell is playing safe, waiting for the Trump impulse to play through the economy. The standoff in Iran looks likely to prove Trump’s pivotal moment: is he a risk taker, or just noise? The stakes are massive - the upside is consolidation of US power, the downside includes acute embarrassment and MAGA disillusionment in the Presidency.

The Israeli strike on Iran has roiled markets. Not unexpected, but the consequences could have been much worse if the Israelis had used low-yield Tactical Nuclear Bunker Busters.

The UK government intends to raise spending on defence by nearly 0.2% of GDP. Give me a break! The costs of trying to fight war on the cheap will be far higher than the costs of maintaining the Peace by being properly prepared to fight a war. To keep the peace means being prepared to fight – and fight hard. Such costs may bring substantial economic benefits.

The Chinese economy has stalled, buffeted my multiple issues from banking, property and demographics. What happens next? The consequences of a China crash or downturn will be multiple and could create further instability.