Trump has told us how fantastic the Beijing summit was – but what is the truth? China and the US agreeing on trade and growth over conflict is positive. They will remain polite to each other, but the struggle for hegemonic power will continue. Xi may be betting the state of the US economy, and the mistakes in Iran, means Trump will become less relevant from November.

The War in Iran is a kinetic feature of the economic/hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. President Trump will lose because his Iran war is unwinnable. Iran won’t lose because it does doesn’t have to win. That’s a recipe for a forever war, and a definition of asymmetric warfare. The likely winner of a wider Economic War will be China. Energy and Supply Chains will determine the future.

Markets aren’t much concerned about Iran. US Military might is expected to prevail, cowing the Ayatollahs into acceptance of Trump’s maximalist demands. What could possibly go wrong? Trump is no student of history, and may not understand the gamut of military, logistical and geopolitical risks aligned against him.

Gold surges through $5000 and markets remain distracted by the sturm et drang of words and events. The world is changing – but are we thinking about all the wrong things? The real issue for the future may be investment choices between authoritarian states vs nimble democratic nations.

It’s one year since Trump took office for a second time. It’s been dramatic. It’s been eventful – and it’s been destructive and destabilising. The winners are Putin and Xi. The losers are the West. But have we now reached peak-Trump? Europe is the key – the continent has to wake up to the coming opportunities.

Rising risks, geopolitical positioning, conflict, and strategic compression will be the themes for coming decade. Who will rise, who will fall? What are the implications for markets. Do not expect easy answers. This is unlikely to play out as anyone predicts.

Michael Burry is not out. His Stuffed Turkey comments sound like a prophesy. AI is evolving fast and not necessarily in the direction the current market understands. Beware no-see-ums. What if the current tech is a dead end, and the financials collapse? A big shift may become clear in coming months… and where to invest next! And let’s talk about bit-flips!

The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has never been more critical as Europe seeks to define its future.

Is the AI bubble bursting? Who will be the survivors and losers? Or is it more fundamental – US AI firms talk of spending billions, but what is China is doing AI better and cheaper? If China wins the AI race, then it will confirm more than just the waning of the American century. It will fundamentally shift valuations.

This morning’s meeting in Busan, Korea was short and sweet. Goal achieved - the global meltdown that would have followed a rare-earth embargo by China has been avoided. What is more interesting is how it could change the current power set-up in Washington as Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio increasingly take centre stage.