The G20 Gabfest in Delhi will boost Modi and paint India as the nation everyone wants to engage with, but it also hints at the end of the current global financial order of the G20, G7, The World Bank, IMF and WTO – No matter, we can build something better.
Lots going on out there – but what does it all mean? Markets have plenty to consider from rates, inflation, micro, macro, geopolitics and climate – but the core objective remains: generating dull, boring predictable returns in difficult markets.
China and the West are diverging into different economic camps. It stings both ways – Western companies trying to build new but more costly secure supply chains, while the Chinese economy struggles with lost orders. Can there be an accommodation? China and the West are diverging into different economic camps. It stings both ways – Western companies trying to build new but more costly secure supply chains, while the Chinese economy struggles with lost orders. Can there be an accommodation?
China will remain the driver of global growth as the West continues to slide. The economy is reopening swiftly, raising increased fears of de-dollarisation. It’s easy to get emotional, but the reality is its happening, get used to it, and figure out the outcomes. They may surprise you..
Analysts and big money say it’s time to reinvest in China on the back of growth and rising prosperity. But global headlines point to rising geopolitical confrontation which could see China sanctioned, or even a hot war with the US. The real issue may be China’s rapidly declining demographics.
The market is talking about a no-landing scenario – but should be watching what Central Banks are saying, and China’s position re Ukraine. The market remains vulnerable to recession and rising geopolitical tensions. They are very closely linked.
While the rest of the world hiked to fight inflation, China has embarked a sprint to reopen the economy; easing rates, mortgages, property lending and loans. The question is can it succeed when demographics, trade and the laws of growth may have already moved against them?
Political instability is turning into a global competition as Bolsonaro supporters storm Brazil’s Government, the CCP reopen China’s Borders to chaos, and the US Speaker deals with political hi-jackers to secure his seat. All will have consequences and should make markets nervous.
Markets love drama… from the next corupto-coin exchange to collapse, rising interest rate threats, and riots in China in the face of a Covid meltdown. But drama and reality seldom coincide – events are more prosaic!
Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.