Tag China

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism China defence geopolitics Oil Political risk sanctions USA

What will China do?

Analysts and big money say it’s time to reinvest in China on the back of growth and rising prosperity. But global headlines point to rising geopolitical confrontation which could see China sanctioned, or even a hot war with the US. The real issue may be China’s rapidly declining demographics.

China, Ukraine, war
Bill Blain
March 9, 2023
5

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism central banks China Ukraine

Central Banks, Recession landing risks, and why China is the issue to watch

The market is talking about a no-landing scenario – but should be watching what Central Banks are saying, and China’s position re Ukraine. The market remains vulnerable to recession and rising geopolitical tensions. They are very closely linked.

central banks, China, Hard Landing, No Landing, Soft Landing, Ukraine
Bill Blain
February 20, 2023
1

Blain’s Morning Porridge China

What’s the real story in China?

While the rest of the world hiked to fight inflation, China has embarked a sprint to reopen the economy; easing rates, mortgages, property lending and loans. The question is can it succeed when demographics, trade and the laws of growth may have already moved against them?

China, China economy, demographics, President Xi
Bill Blain
January 27, 2023
3

Blain’s Morning Porridge Capitalism geopolitics

Global Politics – the future, and how much instability will feed into markets?

Political instability is turning into a global competition as Bolsonaro supporters storm Brazil’s Government, the CCP reopen China’s Borders to chaos, and the US Speaker deals with political hi-jackers to secure his seat. All will have consequences and should make markets nervous.

China, Europe, Geopolitics, India, Middle East, politics, The West, USA
Bill Blain
January 9, 2023
7

Blain’s Morning Porridge China cryptocurrencies Tech

Binance, China, Covid and Tech Value – what a mix!

Markets love drama… from the next corupto-coin exchange to collapse, rising interest rate threats, and riots in China in the face of a Covid meltdown. But drama and reality seldom coincide – events are more prosaic!

Big Tech, Binance, China, Covid, Value Stocks
Bill Blain
November 29, 2022
5

Blain’s Morning Porridge Bitcoin Bonds Capitalism central banks Climate Change Economy Financial Assets geopolitics Global Growth Markets QE stagflation UK USA

Big Shifts last week set to dominate markets long term

Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.

China, COP27, Cryptocurrencies, Global Tech, Inflation, US politics
Bill Blain
November 14, 2022
6

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Fed Recession

Fed rocks market, but Recession and China’s Surveillance State are long-term bigger risks

The Fed roiled markets over the pace and scale of rate hikes, but ultimately markets are about growth. The big issues were not thinking about enough are global recession, slowing trade, and the threats China’s evolution into a Surveillance State raise for future growth.

China, Fed, Jerome Powell, recession, Surviellance State
Bill Blain
November 3, 2022
5

Blain’s Morning Porridge China

Where is China going with its new economy?

When the fact change, change strategy. The enthronement of Xi Jinping represents such a moment – and comfirms the big theme for coming decades: The Middle Kingdom vs the West.

CCP, China, Xi Jingpin
Bill Blain
October 25, 2022
6

Blain’s Morning Porridge China Inflation

How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China to a Banking Crisis?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 13th 2022: How long and deep is Inflation, and how close is China to a…

China, Inflation
Bill Blain
July 13, 2022
12

Blain’s Morning Porridge Markets stagflation UK

What a week – recession threats and political instability causes markets to rally!

The world is watching for signs confirming global recession, so naturally markets have rallied (!). Political instability is resolved to be replaced with some bleak truths and spending choices. So.. steady at the wheel, nothing to worry about then?

central banks, China, Energy, interest rates, politics, Ukraine
Bill Blain
July 8, 2022
9

What next for Banks in wake of CoCo crisis from Credit Suisse and Rising Inflation?
March 22, 2023
Just how vulnerable are banks to further contagion and crisis? With inflation still running loose, central banks still set to hike, while consumer and corporate pressures mount, the banking crisis may only just have started.Read More »
CoCos, AT1s – Proved Right at Last!
March 21, 2023
The “rescue” of Credit Suisse, thereby averting a European banking crisis, is getting less comment than the nixing of its $17.5 bln of CoCo Bonds. I’ve been warning about CoCos since 2011. Finally I got something right!Read More »
The War Between Market Stability and Chaos hots up – How will it play?
March 17, 2023
Central Banks face a mighty challenge persuading markets and depositors the banking system is stable. The war between chaos and order in markets has turned hot. At stake is the stability and future of the global economy. Anyone for the last few choc ice?Read More »
Credit Suisse – How Bad and What Next?
March 16, 2023
Credit Suisse is in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Confidence in the bank is zero. The Swiss National Bank has provided a backstop, but a sale looks likely of the bank that just can’t get it right.Read More »
What future for Banks, and the UK budget
March 15, 2023
SVB is done and dusted, and its time to ask questions, like: what is the future for banks? What do they do, and how do they do it? Are they at an evolutionary dead end? Probably. And the sheer joy that is the UK budget… stronger coffee please.Read More »