The nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair has been rationalised as positive for stability and managing Trump. But will a new name on the desk means certainty will return? Nothing really changed within the Administration – Trump remains Trump and has a massive War Chest to fight the coming bitter Midterms.

Yesterday was a strategic disaster for America. Trump and his minions have destroyed the alliances that underpinned American exceptionalism. He revealed himself as weak and venal; an old man lost in rambling hatreds. America now faces a scrabble to save face and recover a modicum of respect. The medium-to-long term market implications are huge.

Trump dominates the headlines but watch what’s happening in the bond markets. Yesterday Japan bond yields juddered a warning about political competency risks, but also how rising geopolitical and conflict risks are resetting investor expectations. When the bond market speaks, you ought to listen. Plus, Air Force One, Bitcoin and Howard Lutnick.

This year is shaping up to be a big one for IPOs, but just how sustainable will the market be if the speculative froth driving valuations dissipates? SpaceX will be the big one – it is a truly extraordinary firm, but after the noise, what’s it really worth?

Venezuela bond prices have spiked higher on expectations of new investment, debt restructuring, and the monetisation of its oil resources. But how likely is it the nation can be reformed, attract new money, and satisfy the population while the old regime remains in place, and Washington demands to be paid?

 Markets are winding down for the holiday break, but the news flow continues to hint at rising destability and noise, hinting the future economic path will get more twisty and difficult. Lower rates and QE fuelled markets (but not growth) in the 2010s, but won’t work when there is a strong inflationary impulse in place!

Global Markets surge ahead. Bitcoin has been left behind. Yet again the crypto bubble has popped. All that’s holding it up is buy-the-dip greater fools, hope and belief – none of which are strategies for success. Time for a reassessment of what Bitcoin is and isn’t, and why it’s time to stop wasting energy on it!

Ukraine has demonstrated massive changes in how future wars will be fought. Yet, the military bureaucracies of Western Nations are mired in the procurement-treacle of 80 years of peacetime spending. It’s time for radical overhaul, and an explosion of private-funding to build a stronger Western economy through aggressive deterrence. 

The Chinese curse about living in “interesting times” is a boon to anyone fascinated by markets. There is no shortage of excitement coming our way next year – everything from conflict threats, renewed inflation, the return of QE, to the Space X IPO. But the thing is… we really don’t know….. we never have!

This week will see the Fed ease rates, stocks will rally on happy retail buying any dip, and everyone will go into the holidays joyful… Except they won’t. There is so much still bubbling under the hood of the US economy that can go “bang”. Don’t watch the USA – watch China for clues.