We think we know the patterns – how markets resonate and repeat. But…. Do we? Every so often the Earth’s polarity shifts – but its never happened in recorded history so we don’t really know. Every so often the World’s basis changes. Make merry while we can. Enjoy what is real. The rest is just numbers. You are measured not by the digits on your bank balance, but by the numbers of your friends.

Suddenly global markets are reeling – waking up to the reality of the unwinnable Iran War. What will a dramatic shift in sentiment mean for stocks, bonds and commodities as stagflation beckons, and Trump finds himself isolated? There is a growing risk of a liquidity shock to global markets.

As the US and Israel attack Iran, confirming the Fire Horse threat of escalating conflict risks, do we also face a second social threat from AI triggering widespread social and wealth-inequality protests? Does 2026 risk becoming a double whammy hit on market sentiment and confidence?

Just how thick is the ice? Everything juddered last week – from AI to perceptions of Geopolitics. There are so many take aways. Are markets vulnerable to an AI/Credit Cascade event? How vulnerable are The Middle Nations (J-CAKE). China is a rising risk. Just how well will the USA handle a crisis? Is it time to exit Gold? But go where?

There is nothing like a Trump tweet to set the tone for the week. Feels like the markets are living on borrowed time re AI, US Treasuries and current valuations. All look strong, but what if the bottom falls out? Relax… the sun will come up tomorrow.

Gold Prices stumbled earlier this week. It is a bursting bubble? Nope. Markets will remain uncertain – while the world’s geopolitical polarity is shifting Gold remains the safe-haven play. That shift is being accelerated by events as the stability that fuelled the last 80 years of growth is undermined by bad politics and division.

 There is no stopping a market believing what it wants to believe. Tariffs, Trade Wars, Credit Cockroaches, BTC delusions, this market has it all, yet everyone is still dancing. Best thing to do might be to “Catflap” – walking away without saying anything to anyone.

The World shifted over the weekend. Trump’s 100% China Tariff threat was a snap reaction to the reality is China is now the key power in global trade, and holds most of the cards. There are significant risks ahead, not the least being the AI bubble popping – which would kill US sentiment as the whole stock market edifice will trumble.

Argentina’s financial crises are legendary – a 10th default is now in prospect. President Milei’s efforts to turn the nation around through austerity, government cuts, and economic shock therapy made him a poster boy for the Libertarian Project 2025. Surprisingly, they appeared to be working, till suddenly they aren’t. Now the USA looks set to bail out the nation.

The amount of nonsense being written about the imminent collapse of the UK Gilts Market defies logic and experience. The numbers show demand for Gilts remains solid – but the growing, and often invented negativity over rising Lond-End yields threatens confidence in the UK’s bond market. Yield curves are steepening around the globe!