When the rest of the world is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of US debt – of course it makes sense to increase the deficit through a politically motivated tax-cutting Big, Beautiful Bill. Not!  A Debt Storm is coming. Batten down the hatches.

Trump blinked. 42 days after “Liberation Day” China gets a 10% base tariff level, putting it on better trade terms than the EU?  It was a ramble of conflicting narratives, but the reality is the US may just have averted a catastrophic trade induced crash – it will likely still experience a stagflationary shock.

The market is probably overstressing on Trump – but he does make a lot of noise. A bigger danger may be the broader signals and the future of the USA as economic hegemon. At a time when the US Debt clock is spinning so fast you can’t read the numbers, could the USA withstand a Dollar, Treasury and Political Competency Crisis? Let me explain by taking you to the top of a very steep mountain.

When future economic historians try to figure out the pivotal moment in the Decline and Fail of the American Century, its likely last week will figure in their thinking. Trump’s actions will have profound implications for bond and tech markets – and the time to start building these consequences into portfolios is NOW!

How sustainable is the Trump effect? The world is reeling from his demands and threats to trade. Trump’s power is to shock. Yet, we become inured to shocks, and work our way around them. How long before Trump’s backers and supporters realise that? And he hasn’t even started on China!

Valuations in the USA look insane. Surely stock prices must be a bubble? Maybe. Maybe not – the USA has created a self-driving technology machine, a conveyor belt of tech innovation that’s set to continue delivering value and corporate profits. To understand it – ditch traditional thinking about economies.

The weekend’s events in Syria highlight dramatic and swift change at the core of the geopolitical instability that’s defined the last few years. The cost in blood from conflict has been horrendous, but from a market and stability perspective there is now more to be positive about. Russia and Iran’s defeat in Syria could even trigger global recovery!

I was there! Trump Wins. Get over it. Not the End of the World. The Democrats will be blaming themselves, but ultimately they lost because of inflation and how voters felt their economic situation had deteriorated under Biden. I must buy a Harris pin, and a MAGA hat…

Smart pundits are buying Uranium. While China builds out its nuclear fleet, the US looks set to favour fossil fuels while the UK’s nuclear plans are over-engineered and slow. Future economic leadership will be determined by energy.  It’s a game the West could well lose.