Macro Economic Data paints an imperfect picture of the US economy – but the numbers are likely to be challenging in coming months. We should pay attention to them, but the underlying resilience of the US economy to disruption may yet surprise us!

It’s time to focus back on the real stuff: economic growth and innovation. We need to move past the Trump noise, and get back to opportunities. Which companies offer realistic growth and innovation, and which are hype? The real issue may yet prove to be the US Treasury Market, where doubts are growing.

Content with his supposed win in the Tariff Wars, now Trump is rooting out internal dissent – Harvard being top of his list of target institutions. What next? US Risks are rising and are still not fully reflected in stock or bond prices. Peak Trump is a long way down the road – till then things may get worse.

Today is Halloween, when the lines between this world and others, the past and future, alternative timelines and other realities, cross and oft merge into each other.. at least according to Celtic legend. This morning it just so happens a Morning Porridge from October 2026 has crossed the divide and snuck into my inbox….

Rates, Inflation, Deficits, the Dollar and the future of everything might just depend on how Tuesday’s televised US Election Debate goes? There will be a winner and a loser. Next week’s Fed Meeting will be more nuanced – but could it ultimately be as important over the long-term?

The US economy looks strong, robust and resilient. Investors are pouring billions into stock trackers believing it’s all rosy upside ahead. Under the surface there is enormous stress as consumers, corporates, banks and the government struggle with debt and its consequences. If something snaps….