That was an interesting weekend. Trump announces a blockade that will impact the whole Global Economy – and South East Asia and China in particular. At least Europe got some good news from Hungary. More instability forecast before Trump inevitably TACO’s again. Markets are getting bored of it – which means the consequences could be even more volatile! That could double up No-See-Um Risks.

The World shifted over the weekend. Trump’s 100% China Tariff threat was a snap reaction to the reality is China is now the key power in global trade, and holds most of the cards. There are significant risks ahead, not the least being the AI bubble popping – which would kill US sentiment as the whole stock market edifice will trumble.

Donald Trump has made an example out of Canada: a 35% tariff rate will show these damn Canadians! Probably a mistake. He reminded the world how capricious he is. It will remind markets that Trump and certainty don’t go hand in hand. It leaves the UK in an embarrassing spot.

Markets should be relieved at the US reaching a bipartisan deal on Ukraine and Israel, but will likely be fixated on the current stock market wobble – which could turn sour. The real issue is how the weekend US deal clearly focuses the US vs China, and that has massive market and economic implications.

Everyone loves a conspiracy theory, but what if the stories Covid escaped from a China virus lab take hold? We will never know the truth, but as the  rumours multiply, they could trigger renewed trade-war. It could unravel China’s regional hegemony and trigger a dramatic reversal for the global economy -especially for China.