Interesting times indeed. Mr Market seldom looks beyond the end of his own nose, but the World is looking increasingly fraxious these days. Big nations have ever bigger problems. Maybe smaller ones will do better? The end of strong states often results in smaller nations competing harder to thrive, leading to competitive frictions!
There is something deeply unstable underlying current markets. They don’t feel right. Something has changed. What could it be? It’s likely to be how Trump’s misjudgements in Iran and over NATO have reset expectations and accelerated the end of the American Age. The implications are huge.
Rising risks, geopolitical positioning, conflict, and strategic compression will be the themes for coming decade. Who will rise, who will fall? What are the implications for markets. Do not expect easy answers. This is unlikely to play out as anyone predicts.
The frenetic pace of activity in Washington this week has left the commentariat stunned while dulling the market’s sensitivity to momentous events. Some of it is madness, while much of what Trump is doing makes curiously perverse sense – but what are the risks it all spectacularly unravels?
Something different for Morning Porridge Readers this morning, a guest post from my chum David Murrin.
Yesterday, the UK unveiled its long-awaited Strategic Defence Review. The implications for markets, both for Bonds and Equity, and the cohesion of the West are massive. The SDR represents an opportunity and challenge.
Trump was right: NATO had become an American Umbrella. Europe needs time to re-establish its own defence capacity – and that requires respect on both sides of the Atlantic to achieve security without further destabilising global peace. These are “interesting” times indeed.









