Andy Burnham promises the UK a national reboot. Critical to his success will be his choice of chancellor, and the relationship with the financial markets. Rachel Reeves is closely associated with the failed Starmer premiership – but she knows how to do the job and has credibility with the markets. With new leadership she could prove a much better choice than other contenders.

Poor old Sir Keir Starmer. Wrong man in the wrong job. So much hope now squandered. But its important not to over-think or over-worry what comes next. In Gilts there is truth and the 10-year yield is still south of 5%. Andy Burnham needs to prove himself a leader and demonstrate ideas and action. Is that too much to ask?

The threat board is looking crowded this morning. From UK political risk, escalating conflict risks, a possible credit burp and what happens next in unsustainable narratives – who knows what further No-See-Ums lurk in the background. Yet markets party on. What can possibly go wrong…..?

Labour declared war on Reform yesterday. Is it a battle they can win? Populism trounced the ill-prepared conventional Democrats in the USA last year. UK Gilts are relatively stable, showing markets are not particularly concerned – yet. Little is known of Reform’s non-immigration or Europe agenda.  Can Labour regain the initiative?

I feel sorry for Sir Keir Starmer. He’s become the UK’s most hated politician in a remarkably short period of time. It’s apparently all his fault. Labour’s dither illustrates the real crisis at the heart of broken Britain: long-term fixes for incoherent privately-owned infrastructure when politics focuses on the immediate here and now.

Markets are still trading off the speculative boost given them by Trump’s election win. Further upside is vulnerable to correction which could come from anywhere; Fed timing, corporate events, inflation, recession or even Blitzkrieg Politics if political mistakes are made.

I am not particularly worried about tomorrow’s UK budget statement, but from the noise you’d think it’s the end of the world. I suspect there are elements of the UK’s political blob who will be very happy for Rachel Reeves to challenge Liz Truss in the incompetency stakes. She won’t, but the blob will try to undermine her – perhaps through the Gilts Market.

 The stunning success of yesterday’s 14x covered 2040 Gilt confirms the new Labour Government has a wider range of options for the October Budget. It nails the lies fictitious “Bond Vigilantes” having been pouring in the market’s ear – the fact is the global bond market has just demonstrated confidence in Sir Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves.

Labour got a landslide, but did not win the UK election – the Tories lost it. The result is not what it appears to be…. The real winner was Reform, and that could have massive future consequences for Markets and the UK economy.

The UK election is the most important in decades, but the debate on policy and the future is trapped in the minutiae of the financial orthodoxy of costed and funded policy tweaks. The malign ghost of Liz Truss and the Trusterf*ck haunts markets like a bad smell. It must be exorcised!