You might think China planned it this way. As it challenges the USA as global hegemon, there is panic across the West as Western Long Bond Yields hit record levels. It smells like crisis – In Bond Yields there is Truth – but you have to know how to read the market. Long bonds are weak because of inflation. Be concerned, but not fearful. Buy the short-end – cuts are coming!

Global Trade is enormously complex. Trump has put 104% tariffs on China – which will directly impact US consumers. Shutting the door on global trade will inevitably trigger consequences. The biggest risk is to the bond market – and a stressed Treasury market when the US has $15 trillion to refinance in next 20 months is a really, really bad idea.

The US election remains too close for the pundits to call, but from a trading perspective the contrarian Trump loses trade is well underway. Who knows what the rest of this week will bring, but it’s unlikely to be certainty or stability.

As we start a new week of dismal markets, depressing political news, rising inflation and lots of what next worries… relax.. the Sun will come up tomorrow. Not so sure about the economy though…

What can David Attenborough’s Green Planet teach us about Tech Stocks, why they are overvalued, and why rising rates suggest the game is over?

US 10-year bonds and US equity are in fully rally mode. They show contradictory expectations for a stalled recovery and future strong growth! How can that be? Because the market is about what participants collectively think – and how markets think has been utterly changed by 12 years of monetary experimentation, repression, and distortion. We’ve got to change the way we think about markets.