While Trump fumes at Jay Powell for not slashing rates, Scott Bessent is the adult-in-the-room minding the Fed isn’t too battered by the President’s harangues. No doubt they chat about the structure of the market and the rising risks to it – including stablecoins.

When markets are hitting record highs is the time to be cautious, and ask why? US Stocks and Bonds are at record levels, despite the current uncertainties and policy instability. What’s driving it is a mix of themes, including market evolution. But also a market potentially complacent about approaching threats.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 24th April 2025 – Private Assets, Contagion [...]

I’m delighted to announce we’ve signed an agreement in Cairo to build a new $7 bln private sector petrochemicals plant in Egypt, a development that could herald a new era of economic growth and the emergence of the future Middle Sea economy for the Middle East, Europe and North Africa.

Trump has hit the global economy with extreme force and a blizzard of confusion that’s working well for him as his domestic popularity rockets. JD Vance delivered a clear message to Europe yesterday – our way or no way. But ultimately, what is the real power dynamic in the USA? Clue: it’s not Musk. The answer may be Peter Thiel and his fascination with JRR Tolkien.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 8th Jan 2025 – Beware rising complacency [...]

It’s clear 2025 will be a challenging year – there are plenty of issues to cause markets headaches, but opportunities in abundance. The primary problems may come from the ongoing politics of disruption and the likelihood electorates are going to remain profoundly disappointed.

Sequels oft disappoint. Just how will the world change after Jan 20th 2025? Maybe not the way we expect. Meanwhile, the global Alternatives markets are becoming increasingly frothy as the big firms bid up for market expertise and scale. Does that suggest they might be missing something?

Markets are watching Commercial Real Estate, nervous the sector may implode and create a repeat of the 2008 repeat financial crisis. Smarter investors see weak property markets as opportunity – and are looking for the right assets.

Next week I will be either stuck in the queues at Heathrow, or sailing round Greece. Time to unwind and think about the state of the World. Or… maybe not ruin my break by scaring myself! Some thoughts on Global Macro.