Markets are poised for the strongest year finish in decades, anticipating early rate cuts and upside in 2024. Meanwhile consumers wrestle with wages falling behind costs, while businesses struggle with debt. The gap between expectations and reality is simply too wide – and will become increasingly apparent.

 Market predictions are hostages to fortune. Keeping an open mind and being adaptable is an alternative – but means missing the long-term benefits of conviction trades. This morning Bill and Julian demonstrate why markets exist: perspectives differ!

 2024 is not shaping up to be a vintage market year. It will be difficult, uncertain and confusing. There is a speedbump coming!  However, there are plenty of hopeful signals about long term stability, growth and recovery. Just… not yet!

 The Bank of England is worried about Private Credit Markets – good to know they’ve heard of it! Their concerns are valid, but it’s a market very different to banking and doesn’t share the same systemic risk triggers. Its full of opportunity!

Expectations of early interest rate cuts are high, especially as recession signals are set to rise through Q1 2024. Will Central Banks stay the course and normalise interest rates, or will be take the easy option of further low interest rate distortion?

Charlie Munger has left us a deep well of investment advice – pithy quotes we can all learn from. Pay attention and remain deeply, deeply sceptical. Meanwhile, the fact bond rates are falling does not mean the global economy is fixed. It means trouble ahead.

Markets feel buoyant and happy, and that makes me nervous. What are we missing? How will spot the inevitable shift in sentiment coming? It’s a traders market. Meanwhile, long-term investors are changing the very structure of the market.

UBS’s new $3.5 Bln ATI CoCo Bond was 10 times oversubscribed. It conclusively demonstrates the market not only has no memory, but very little understanding either. This is not a good time to be the very bottom of the bank subordination ladder.

Bond Markets are a wonderful thing to behold in full rally mode, but expectations of a swift return to lower rates depend on Central Banks playing ball, and nothing else changing. Experience shows things change quickly re inflation, rates and markets!

Markets thrive on competing perspectives, but trends after the strongest narrative. Rather than pray for early rate cuts to boost prices, maybe we should figure out what would be best for the economy?