Barclays has been fined £40mm for being “Reckless” in its dodgy 2008 capital funding programme. The judgement hides a multitude of sins and failures, especially in terms of probity and governance. It’s another chapter and illustration of how greed and avarice sank the once world-class UK financial industry over the last 40 years.   

China issued $2bln of Bonds via Saudi Arabia last week. Some think it’s part of a malign plan for China to disrupt the global dollar bond markets. It may be the trigger for a dramatic rethink and recalibration of how global markets finance future credit. As geopolitical flux deepens, how might a new bond markets evolve?

Let’s be dispassionate about the US election result. What kind of upside will a Bonfire of Regulations and Surging Confidence bring to markets? What are the risks of Trump’s new start for US markets? The next four years look… interesting.

Today is Halloween, when the lines between this world and others, the past and future, alternative timelines and other realities, cross and oft merge into each other.. at least according to Celtic legend. This morning it just so happens a Morning Porridge from October 2026 has crossed the divide and snuck into my inbox….

I am not particularly worried about tomorrow’s UK budget statement, but from the noise you’d think it’s the end of the world. I suspect there are elements of the UK’s political blob who will be very happy for Rachel Reeves to challenge Liz Truss in the incompetency stakes. She won’t, but the blob will try to undermine her – perhaps through the Gilts Market.

The Middle East is Burning. The US economy faces supply chain crisis. The UK’s young workers can't afford to live. Lets argue about how to settle and trade UK Gilts instead. It will look like we’re doing something….

The market keeps on rolling upwards, despite it being a month till what might be a make or break moment. Isn’t anyone else worried? Are we doomed to constantly repeat the mistakes of the past? Or should markets just shrug and get on with making money?

This week will see the Fed start to ease, but the question is pace? Do they go big and create potential concerns on a hard landing – potentially scaring the horses - or do they hold a steady course, a modest ease to guide markets that rates are normalising. Whatever the Fed does needs coordination with policy on the future path of the economy.

The market is under a glamour cast by Nvidia. It’s the most watched headline stock. In a perfect world, its position would mean there would be little to worry about, but US data and all the other market frictions are combining to challenge the market’s narrative – which is a long way of saying… THIS MARKET IS TOPPY.

 The stunning success of yesterday’s 14x covered 2040 Gilt confirms the new Labour Government has a wider range of options for the October Budget. It nails the lies fictitious “Bond Vigilantes” having been pouring in the market’s ear – the fact is the global bond market has just demonstrated confidence in Sir Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves.