The spike in Gilt Yields says it all. Its crisis – again – in Westminster as Starmer is mired in crisis with no obvious way out. Yet again we learn a political lesson – good  political leaders are a scarce commodity. The British electorate is losing faith in politics. What will global investors think?

Does the steepness of the US yield curve tell us the US Economy is about to boom, or inflation is about to sink the Treasury markets? To figure out which, you need to interrogate the witnesses and look at what the evidence is telling us.

The UK survived yesterday’s Pretend and Extend budget. It was a lacklustre soap-opera moment. It won’t cure the UK’s long-term issues or fix Broken Britain. If politicians were serious about repairing the political economy of the UK – it’s time for root and branch surgery on the “frictions” that leave the nation suffering Economic Dementia!

There is nothing like a Trump tweet to set the tone for the week. Feels like the markets are living on borrowed time re AI, US Treasuries and current valuations. All look strong, but what if the bottom falls out? Relax… the sun will come up tomorrow.

Yesterday saw bad political theatre in the UK. Rachel Reeves got up and warned everyone it’s going to be bad and therefore made it so. Acres of negative coverage and lots for the opposition to make noise about. But the reality is maybe very different. There is not that much [more than usual] to worry about.

Every day we are reminded of injustice in the UK – the fight of postmasters against the Post Office, or haemophiliacs against the medical indifference are just  the tip of an iceberg of a justice system loaded against the people. It’s only when it impacts directly do you realise just how lopsided UK planning has become. There is no social justice - just the jackboot of corporate greed being crushed into the face of humanity… forever.

The debt crises that apparently threaten to engulf Paris and London are very, very different. Paris is in genuine financial and market trouble. London has a perception problem.

Both crises are rooted in political/fiscal miscalculations and the widening polarisation between political populism and conventional politics. The crisis in Paris is very real, but the one in London is largely driven by Doom-Scrolling financial misdirection of doubtful right-wing provenance, looking to snipe the centrist Labour govt.

Huh! Some Nervous Nellies think the US stock market is rallying hard on thin air. Nonsense. What’s not to like about a big Fed Ease, a strong economy, and empowered companies! Nothing to worry about in terms of inflation or trade – ignore the doomsters trying to undermine confidence in the President and America. Buy, buy, and buy…

Last week the Axis of Autocracy gathered to watch a spectacular military parade. Here in the West governments are tripping over themselves as politics become ever more polarised and ineffective. How should these factors inform investment decisions?

The amount of nonsense being written about the imminent collapse of the UK Gilts Market defies logic and experience. The numbers show demand for Gilts remains solid – but the growing, and often invented negativity over rising Lond-End yields threatens confidence in the UK’s bond market. Yield curves are steepening around the globe!