Who are we trying to fool? Rising bond yields, higher for longer rates, recession fears, crashing consumption, yet stocks believing earnings could still push them higher? Are we at risk of a realisation moment and a repeat of 1987 or maybe something worse?

Are current markets turning into a bad dream? There are so many reasons to be fearful, but giving into our terrors shows how driven by bias we are. A Hornet in the Bedroom Moment can make everything look bad. The reality is… probably not as bad as it looks!

Fitch threw a spanner into the works last night downgrading the US – but they were right to do so. Political risks in the US and UK – both are approaching peak electoral cycle crises points  – are rising and the disinformation wars will ensure it gets… fruity.

US Inflation looks to have been beaten, but that might not mean very much if the global economy is still headed into recession. Rates and consumption are a lagging problem for the markets, and there is a chance even strong economies will stall.

Stock buybacks are a contentious issue – there are times they are the right thing to do, and make sense. Often they do not. The trick is to align them with shareholder value and stakeholders and be aware of the consequences. They should not just be about the stock price!

Many think Markets are set fair for the second half of 2023 – but what if a mighty depression is brewing out there in the ocean of corporate debt? I am looking at the glass (barometer for the non-nautical) falling and at the CLO market in particular. There may be a storm brewing.