Blain’s  Morning Porridge 9/11 2024 – Kamala didn’t lose, Trump might have lost. What does it mean?

“I have the biggest rallies, the most incredible rallies, the best rallies, the most incredible rallies in history of rallies in the history of rallies..”

Last night’s US presidential debate – does it matter who won? The issue remains: what will the respective policies of Trump or Harris mean for the US and the Global Economy. The election remains too close to call.

This morning I’m sitting waiting for a plane in Heathrow, so it’s going to be a short comment. It’s also the anniversary of 9-11. I spent a number of very happy years working for BGC/Mint, part of what was Cantor Fitzgerald, the firm based near the top of Tower 2 that was very nearly wiped out by the atrocity. Today they will be holding their annual charity day – giving away all their profits on trades to deserving causes. Please think about trading with them today.

The US Election Debate

I’ll be back with a fuller piece tomorrow on the consequences of last night’s US Presidential Debate. The quick take is Kamala Harris didn’t lose, but Trump certainly didn’t win. He may have lost. Taylor Swift was first to put the boot in. It leaves the election still too close to call. It’s all about Pennsylvania, which would have tickled my grandma’s brother, my Uncle Jack who ran away to sea in the 1900s, became a Wobbly(Workers of the World) in the 1920s before he acquired a considerable fortune in business enabling him to buy a beautiful home and land in the State. I know who he would not be voting for…

Strip away with noise, the poisonality of Trump, Kamala’s smile, and the verbiage of insults. Focus on what the parties are selling:

• The Democrats are asking the electorate for support on their economic record – the 16 million jobs Harris says have been created under Biden, the strength of the economy (until recently the strongest performing Western economy), the extraordinary gains of the stock market, and a future that will address inequality to deliver a fairer society. They aim to restore global confidence in America.
• The Trump Republicans are telling the electorate they will maintain lower taxes, while cutting business taxes to boost growth. They say Democrats ignored middle America, leaving them in financial crisis caused inflation and higher rates destroying their savings and disposable income, leaving them penniless. Trump says the US is poised on the brink of destitution and break-up, “Venezuela on steroids”, due to Biden’s destructive economic policies and Kamala being a Marxist. They have enabled rising crime in the cities, while immigration, immigration and immigration is destroying the American way of life – all confirmed when Trump told us Santa’s Little Helper (the Simpson’s Dog) was cooked for lunch in Springfield – America’s everytown – by illegal immigrants.

The real issue is what these two different approaches to governing the US will result in. What will be the likely consequences on the USA’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity; how the global investment community and markets perceive the future outlook for the USA in terms of:

• The stability of the dollar and its place as the centre-pin of global trade,
• The sustainability of the US Treasury Market if the dollar weakens, the twin deficits rise and geopolitical trends and declining trade reduce demand for dollars, which are typically invested into the zero-risk rate Treasury market.
• The political competency of the USA to deliver on its role as global hegemon at a time when even senior NATO members doubt its commitment.

More on all these tomorrow…

As I write this I am sitting in Heathrow drinking a pitiful excuse of a coffee that cost the GNP of the nation the plant was grown in… I’ve just spent 20 minutes in the security queue waiting while the officers took my toothpaste away to be tested. Interesting that one – it was in the plastic bag, yet my Oral-B toothpaste is apparently a potential terrorist weapon. I made the mistake of asking what the problem was – moments later a supervisor appeared and made clear I wouldn’t be catching any flights today if I continued to ask questions.

Since 9-11, we’ve got used to the increased security in airports. We all know the critical importance of putting anything liquid or semi-solid in a plastic bad. Without plastic bags – global travel would immediately collapse. (I understand a chap who owns a plastics-factory in Southall has cornered the global airline plastic bag market.)

As I stood and waiting for the security team to test my Oral-B toothpast for whatever they thought it might be…. I wondered what happened to the new security machines heralded earlier this year. They appeared and then disappeared – apparently a problem in identifying the quantity of liquids within carry-on-luggage. Or was it because airport security has become a massive employment scam supporting the local economy?

I have to wonder….

Full service tomorrow, off to the airport gate..

Bill Blain

Author of The Morning Porridge

Founder, Windshift Capital