Blain’s Morning Porridge March 31st, 2026 – Escalating the Iran War into a Water War!
“I hold at your neck the gom jabbar, the high-handed enemy. It’s a needle with a drop of poison…”
Who needs nukes to win an Oil War when Water is the key? The Front-Line Gulf States are highly vulnerable to a Water War on their desalination plants. Yesterday Trump threatened to strike Iran’s water infrastructure – practically inviting Tehran to strike back! But the Strait of Hormuz is not Iran’s only Ace in the current war.
Yesterday Donald Trump’s threatened a major escalation of the Iran War when he threatened to “blow up” Iran’s desalination plants. That would be a war crime – simple as. No ifs. No buts. The Rome statues forbid targeting civilian infrastructure while the Fourth Geneva convention specifically prohibits attacks on drinking water facilities. There are some things that can’t be unsaid.
I’m sure I’m not the only financier wondering what Trump’s latest off-the-cuff, ill-considered jaw-dropper really means. Am I going to have to sell my entire position in US Treasuries and US Stocks? The UK regulator, the FCA, and internal ethical investment parameters, are both quite clear and specific about the ethics of investing in states that promote terror or genocide against civilian populations.
Al Jazeera carried an interview with a professor of international law this morning: “Trump’s threat reinforces the climate of impunity around collective punishment in warfare” adding: “this is clearly a [threat] of collective punishment, which is prohibited under international humanitarian law. You can’t deliberately harm an entire civilian population to pressure its government.”
But the real issue is not the legality of warfare, but what Trump escalated yesterday. Were Trump to destroy Iran’s decaying desalination plants – which don’t supply Tehran and account for less than 3% of Iran’s water, it would have limited immediate effect on his opponent.
But it would immediately escalate the war – practically a gilt-embossed invite to the Iran regime to counterstrike Gulf States’ water infrastructure and desalination facilities in what could prove a genocidal escalation of the war. Were Iran to successfully strike Gulf water supplies because Trump threatened to strike them – it would be the equivalent of a nuclear strike in terms of effectiveness.
Yesterday, Trump has inadvertently revealed that Iran holds not just the Ace of Hormuz, but the Ace of Water in its hand. Just a few months ago Trump was telling the Iranian people he had their back while encouraging them to rebel against the regime. Now he threatens to kill them by denying them water.
A Water War works both ways….
Early in the war Iran made a limited number of drone attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait desalination plants but has since held off – perhaps satisfied it had made a clear statement about what they can hit and raising the spectre of a Water War. It should have been seen as a clear tripwire – a no-cross line.
Yesterday Trump shumbled across that literal line-in-the-sand with his usual grace, elegance, savvy and style. A throw-away line – “we will conclude our lovely stay in Iran by blowing up all their Electric Generating Plans, Oil Wells and Kharg Island, and possibly all desalinisation plants, which we have purposefully not yet touched.”
The nations most at risk from a Water War are the front-line Gulf States – Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE. They would see water shortages within days if Desalination plants were taken out. We’re talking about 40 million people deprived of water. Saudi is next on the list – 70% of its drinking water comes from 2 desalination plants!
The largest desalination plants on the planet are concentrated in the Gulf. In Saudi, the massive Jubail complex on the Red Sea supplies Riyadh while Ras Al-Khair supplies Mecca and the central part of the nation. In Dubai the Jebel Aliplant supplies the water that enables tourism. Abu Dhabi’s Taweelah Desalination facility is the most modern “reverse osmosis” plant and is critical to the nation’s water supplies. 99% of Qatar’s drinking water comes from the Ras Laffanplant. A significant portion of Israel’s drinking water comes from the Sorek plant on the Med. All these facilities are vulnerable if a water-war breaks out. The extreme shortage of US THAAD and Patriot systems means that to defend water infrastructure will require high value state and military facilities to be de-prioritised.
A Water War could trigger immediate disaster across the Middle East. The Gulf states are reliant on Desalination plants for most of their drinking water – 99% in Qatar, 90% in Kuwait and 70% in Saudi cities. 50% of the UAE’s water is sourced from its desal plants – but without them their reservoir reserves would also soon run dry.
If the Iranians were able to take out these desalination plants – which are all on the coast and are considered easy, large targets, the consequences would be rationing in days and severe shortages triggering evacuations within a week. Even minor damage would take weeks/months to repair.
Meanwhile, a Water War would be asymmetric. Tehran is notoriously one of the most water-stressed capital cities on Earth, but up in the mountains there is no utility in desalination. Taking out Tehran’s reservoirs with Dambusters style attacks would be impractical because they are only quarter full, but using bunker busters to deplete ground water and water infrastructure could trigger a collapse in water supply, triggering a similar water shortage. And it would clearly be a war crime against the Iranian people.
Out of time and back to the day job…
Bill Blain
Author of the Morning Porridge
Advisor – Spitfire Strategic Capital
One Comment
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What is important, is that Trump, Putin,Netanyahu et al receive justice of some sorts. Wishful thinking perhaps, but hopefully ….