The Bank of England laid out bleak scenarios for the UK economy – but the outlook and long term future will be worse because the Government has “straight-jacketed” its budget options down to Austerity – which will lead to economic disaster. There is an alternative!
The New UK Sunak Government had steadied markets, but in coming weeks it will become increasingly clear the fractured Tories are trapped in no-Growth Austerity. Can they escape, or is it time for a Political Reset?
Today we likely get a new PM. The opportunity for Rishi Sunak is challenging, but he may get markets on side and start the recovery process for the deeply dysfunctional and divided Conservative Party. He probably still loses by 2024 – but political stability may be back on the agenda.
Budget U-Turns and a P45 should take the edge of the UK’s Financial Woes for a few days, but the big question is what comes next, and who should iterate the New New Conservative Thang. It looks like we have Adults Back in the Room!
The UK is at risk of breaking its “Virtuous Sovereign Trinity” of stable politics, currency and bond markets. Collapsing confidence in politics to stem the slide in sterling and thus Gilts, could see the UK stumble into a crippling Sovereign Financial crisis sooner than we think possible.
Populism is a massive threat to markets. Inflation, tax-hikes, petrol costs, poverty, political mismanagement and a host of other failings could further destabilise the West, while markets seem determined to stay euphoric whatever the evidence to the contrary.