Political instability is turning into a global competition as Bolsonaro supporters storm Brazil’s Government, the CCP reopen China’s Borders to chaos, and the US Speaker deals with political hi-jackers to secure his seat. All will have consequences and should make markets nervous.
The last few days have confirmed we are in a Global Economic Energy War. It is remaking the global order – and will have significant long-term effects on Global Markets. As the sides shift, there will be winners and losers.
The Old Age is over, and its welcome to the new, which is going to be little different – just a lot more complex. Thriving in a confused new economy of energy scarcity, inflation, recession and geopolitical threat isn’t easy – as the UK is about to discover.
The US just took another step towards the end of the Age of American Exceptionalism. It will have major consequences on markets and geopolitics. The West has limited time to prepare for some profound changes.
Markets and Geopolitics intersect in the Great Game being played in Ukraine. The West’s economies are diverging as a result of inflation shocks and looming recession. Divergence will play into Russian’s hands, and presents a clear market strategy: Buy Dollars and Sell Europe.
Yet another difficult week in prospect for markets as $130 oil threatens a global shock, geopolitics remains on the edge, and London tries to rid itself of an infestation of oligarchs without exposing the politicians who let them capture the state.
The weather on the Pacific Northwest has turned ugly, as might the financial weather if the current degree of market complacency proves unfounded!
Across the Occidental Economy there seems a trend towards political failure as polarization, sleaze and opportunism takes hold, even as electorates suffer from increasing inequality and declining prospects. As the threat of post-pandemic inflation rises, the ingredients are all there for further instability and labour strife. It’s all happening as the geo-political spheres of influence between China and the West are being redrawn.
