Many market participants fear the rising quantum of Government Debt spells crisis across the globe. Tush and Nonsense. Debt is not the problem – markets exist to price risk. The crisis lies in economic management, and Political Risk!
While the US is on holiday, its maybe time to consider the biggest threat to market-political stability in 2024 – the US electoral cycle. It’s a pretty binary – Trump or anyone else. At present Biden is setting up to lose – anyone else would likely win.
The Chinese must be delighted, but Donald J Trump is not the problem, just a symptom of crisis within Democracy. The issue is how it plays out for markets in terms of future global alliances, trade, economic growth and prosperity - the signs are not looking good.
US Midterms were a mild win for Republicans, a loss for Democrats, a Big Win for Democracy and a Massive Defeat for Donald Trump. That’s all great news for markets and the global economy.
US Mid-Terms will dominate the news this week. Gridlocked US politics might be good in terms of zero legislative surprises, but polarisation will punish stocks and diminish the US over the long-term.
