There is nothing like a Trump tweet to set the tone for the week. Feels like the markets are living on borrowed time re AI, US Treasuries and current valuations. All look strong, but what if the bottom falls out? Relax… the sun will come up tomorrow.

Is the AI bubble bursting? Who will be the survivors and losers? Or is it more fundamental – US AI firms talk of spending billions, but what is China is doing AI better and cheaper? If China wins the AI race, then it will confirm more than just the waning of the American century. It will fundamentally shift valuations.

 There is no stopping a market believing what it wants to believe. Tariffs, Trade Wars, Credit Cockroaches, BTC delusions, this market has it all, yet everyone is still dancing. Best thing to do might be to “Catflap” – walking away without saying anything to anyone.

What if we are completely wrong about AI? A revolution in how tech is being innovated across the economy is clearly happening –  but what if we’ve got the winners and losers wrong? What if we’ve misjudged how AI will evolve as companies and individuals innovate AI solutions for themselves, seeking to preserve their data sovereignty and control of  their systems?

Three risks for markets to fathom this morning: What Tesla the Meme-stock means for the Mag7, how AI risks are multiplying, and what doing a course on AI revealed about its’ true purpose.

The AI revolution is exceedingly expensive. It’s become a matter of who can chuck the most amount of money at it. But that’s forgetting it’s still evolving and there is little to stop it moving in new directions.

Plus, The Morning Porridge experiments with AI generated graphs!

It’s going to take some while for markets to figure out the consequences and implications of DeepSeek on the AI narrative, including how much false value has been factored into US stocks in particular. What will be the next no see-um remains the eternal question for markets!

A sure sign of just how nervous markets are is volatility and judder moments – the realisation that things aren’t what you thought they were. Who knew a bond bear market was upon us, and interest rates are unlikely to fall? Who knew the Chinese AI Deepseek can do what OpenAI can do at a fraction of the cost?

The Trump Presidency is not short of surprises. It will generate all kinds of consequences. The first is we’re approaching Peak-Musk. Expect to see the battle between Musk and Sam Altman of OpenAI get brutal. That Trump is transactional is no surprise, but how will supporters consider his meme-coin monetisation of power?

The market is under a glamour cast by Nvidia. It’s the most watched headline stock. In a perfect world, its position would mean there would be little to worry about, but US data and all the other market frictions are combining to challenge the market’s narrative – which is a long way of saying… THIS MARKET IS TOPPY.