Just how much money is the AI boom going to make? No one really knows, but everyone is placing their bets. AI dominates the stock markets, but is beginning to worry many investors in terms of likely returns. While AI technologies are changing the world, what we see today may not be what we get tomorrow if new technologies emerge, and the current valuation metrics change. AI may be distracting us from real economic impacts elsewhere – like shipping costs.

The threat list to markets has suddenly expanded – plague, protests and increasing signs the AI boom is a damp squib. However, Sporting Investment remains a hot sector – which may require some tweaking as the full implications of the Man City financial scandal emerge. Durable sporting value requires sound corporate governance, managing the money to ensure competitive integrity, a growing and excited audience, and a clear flow of players from the grass-roots to the big leagues.

The current summit between Trump and Xi will likely become little more than a footnote in the history of the end of one economic empire and the emergence of the next. Xi has patience and has visited DC to let Trump do his thing, while he seeks time and stability to firmly establish China’s dominance. He is guided by the Sun Tzu dictum “Never interrupt your enemy while they are making mistakes.”

There is a rising kerfuffle around the safety of AI. There are good reasons to be fearful. The leading AI Tech Lords now acknowledge there are serious dangers – but AI is now a strategic resource! Thus, there are games of national and company self-interest, and geopolitics all at play in terms of how to harness it. What it all means for markets is still unclear – but some reassessment of the risks should be considered. The horses are running and the stable door is wide open.

If there is a 10% chance AI is going to kill us all, then that’s probably bad news for bond markets. There are a lots of things that threaten us, but fortunately most of them are quite unlikely. A 1 in 10 chance we’re all toast is not. Global markets will probably choose to look the other way, but how would your own investment decisions change if you knew the Terminator is about to knock on the door?

Markets are all-a-wobble as the AI revolution morphs from a picks and shovels Klondike into a “who is going to make most money” proposition. About time. Who will be the winners and losers in the long-term. In the short-term there is going to be pain and losses as the current high-water retreats.

The AI market has been diving business expectations and markets – everyone believes it will deliver a growth, productivity and profit revolution across the global economy. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s not a leap forward, but just a step-change?

2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants”. Hey-Ho, and on we go...

Andy Burnham, the UK Premier in waiting, has laid out his vision and plan for the UK. It didn’t scare the horses and contains some interesting ideas. What it didn’t answer about some of the big issues and “courageous” spending decisions is worrying. But the idea of moving the centre of UK political gravity out of London is inspired. Who knows… it might even work!

Are we about to have an Emperor’s New Clothes moment and a return to sane valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is real and what is not matters. The trick is to exit the short-term game before the long run outcomes are apparent to everyone.