What’s not to like about markets which keep going up? Lots of participants are increasingly certain the current upside momentum is unstoppable. Some of us suffer from the problem of thinking too much and wondering if its sustainable. Being a bear can feel very lonely.

What if we are completely wrong about AI? A revolution in how tech is being innovated across the economy is clearly happening –  but what if we’ve got the winners and losers wrong? What if we’ve misjudged how AI will evolve as companies and individuals innovate AI solutions for themselves, seeking to preserve their data sovereignty and control of  their systems?

Friday August 1st might go down in history as the day the US Treasury Market died. There was an art to reading US Data. It relied on trust. Now that is broken – if you can’t trust the data, what can you trust? Other govt bond markets are available.

Never has the contrast in economic outlook and market expectations been so divided on either side of the pond. In Washington, joy as Trump’s tax cuts are enacted. In London, unremitting gloom and despair. But, hey-ho, Labour is going to fix the NHS! Give me strength….

What will the American mega-stocks be worth tomorrow? What will they be worth when Asian markets are larger, more competitive and more open, and Europe is closed to them? The Age of Trump has catalysed the end of the Age of American Exceptionalism. Apple and Telsa provide scenarios on how it all may come about.

A sure sign of just how nervous markets are is volatility and judder moments – the realisation that things aren’t what you thought they were. Who knew a bond bear market was upon us, and interest rates are unlikely to fall? Who knew the Chinese AI Deepseek can do what OpenAI can do at a fraction of the cost?

As the clock ticks down to the US Coronation, markets are aligning for Donald Trump: a sustainable Treasury market, a strong dollar and Trump’s Treasury pick, Scott Bessent set to demonstrate competency at his senate hearing. What could possibly go wrong?

2024 was an “interesting” year – big questions about inflation, growth and geopolitics were all asked, but answers remain difficult. The politics of populism now dominates the agenda. Issues like climate change and ESG have been pushed aside. The lessons don’t change – trade what the market thinks, but invest in facts and likely outcomes.

The US equity market now stands at over 70% of global market cap – is that sustainable? Many folk think not – concerned about overvaluations, speculation and geopolitics, but my great chum Julian Wheeler digs through the many reasons it became inevitable and will likely be sustained.

Bitcoin breaking $100k was a judder moment in a market already awash with signs and portents suggesting irrational exuberance has gone too far, and a correction is coming. Meanwhile… the UK govt declares war on Porridge.