The UK’s Post Office Scandal has exploded and dominates the headlines. It’s about flawed Corporate Governance – and demands punishment. The implications for markets are huge – the success of capitalism depends of governance and justice being seen to be done.

Let the games begin. 2024 is going to be… interesting. Whether its consumer debt, corporate default rates, banking worries or sovereign bonds there is plenty to be pessimistic about. The optimists think it’s going to be Goldilocks – what do they know I don’t?

Stock buybacks are a contentious issue – there are times they are the right thing to do, and make sense. Often they do not. The trick is to align them with shareholder value and stakeholders and be aware of the consequences. They should not just be about the stock price!

Orders are piling up at the Paris Airshow, but fractured supply chains, labour shortages and engine problems means new aircraft deliveries are delayed for years. That’s opportunity, but also hints at new dynamics in terms of how the aviation sector develops – the Age of Cheap Flight may be over.

What does £5.40 a coffee tell us about the economy? That inflation is sticky. Do we face a stagflationary bust or a reflationary boom? Either will mean Central Banks have failed. At the heart of today’s economy are a succession of issues to resolve – not least is the need for a reset on corporate behaviours to drive stable growth.

BP will use some of its windfall Ukraine Oil Spike profits to fund a stock buy-back. Stock buy-backs are appropriate is some limited circumstances, but generally they distort the way capitalism is supposed to work, undermining good companies and sound corporate governance.

Two simple questions for Central Banks; what was their plan, and what is it now? The consequences of 14 years of monetary experimentation are upon us. From Macro to Micro, Boeing is a sad illustration of the consequences of central bank policy.

The immediate financial market outlook is risk-off driven by Ukraine, followed by rising fears and concerns about inflation policy mistakes, wondering when to pick the bottom in the tech cycle to buy great ideas, why Boeing should be in jail, and longer-term concerns about where we are going in terms of transition. 

Airlines are likely to get a knee-jerk boost when global travel reopens post pandemic, but the outlook facing the aviation sector in terms of balance sheet shattered airlines, struggling aircraft manufacturers, reluctant consumers and a glut of older aircraft has seldom been so uncertain. Yet, in times of confusion there is opportunity!

A new book on the fall of Boeing is getting the headlines this morning. I’ve been arguing it illustrates all the worst excess of capitalism – yet how many investors have called it out? Very few. Why does ESG apparently not apply to Boeing?