The last 6 months has been….. interesting. The world has been shaken, stirred, and left confused, uncertain and destablised. Fantastic. Big shocks create massive opportunities. The issue for markets is understanding why, where and what they are!

Markets and the global economy are subject to how the world is changing – get used to it. Trump is not the cause – he just one symptom of how geopolitics, politics and technology are all undergoing periodic change.

Sir Keir Starmer has jumped aboard  the populist bandwagon, pandering to voters convinced immigration is the UK’s greatest challenge and threat. Silly me… I thought it was the Russians, or jobs, or the economy. The reality is aging nations need workers.

100 days of Trump has distracted us from many big issues – including how his policies have knocked back climate science by decades. Former UK premier Tony Blair has identified massive failures in climate-change and net-zero policies. It’s time to consider how extreme weather will do even more economic damage than trade wars.

Society is a complex notion. It is a collection of rules and guidelines for living and when these are pressured, instability is often the result. Markets are part of modern society and are vulnerable – especially at times of massive change, as is happening now. That doesn’t mean disaster – it means evolution to what will follows. Inshallah.

The bond bear market looks set to deepen as rising energy prices threaten to keep inflation sticky. The way bonds impact the economy is more complex than most understand – it’s not  just interest rates, but how inflation, and growth limit policy choices.

This morning’s Guest Post is from Adrian Jones, who argues there are clues in the fate of Henry VIII’s fixer Thomas Cromwell as to Elon Musk’s possible future. Society swirls around themes and narratives, and being caught on the wrong side of them as they chop and change can be fatal! Let’s not lose our heads over complex issues like Climate Change and Vaccinations, but understand them and the power of consensus…  

This morning the wind is blowing again in the UK. In Baku they are preparing for the gabfest that will be COP29. In Florida, Trump is getting ready to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. As the planet experiences its warmest year on record, and chaotic climate events multiply – where do we go from here in climate finance?

Boeing has just raised $21 bln of new capital – to keep the doors open. That is not a great look. It’s a saga of management and corporate failure unmatched in recent history. The consequences for global aviation are immense. I’m waiting to pick over the bones…

The China Stock market rally comes on the back of hefty stimulus – and leaves many investors wondering if it’s sustainable or whether it’s wise to invest in China at this time. They may be missing the point – the China rally may be part of a wider Asian shift. Plus the end of UK coal.