The Chinese curse about living in “interesting times” is a boon to anyone fascinated by markets. There is no shortage of excitement coming our way next year – everything from conflict threats, renewed inflation, the return of QE, to the Space X IPO. But the thing is… we really don’t know….. we never have!

The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has never been more critical as Europe seeks to define its future.

Bitcoin believers are perfectly entitled to believe what they want to believe. The rest of us: too clever to fall for the hype, or too stupid to understand – depending on your perspective, have grandstand seats for the BTC “how low will it go this time” championship.  

It is possible to cram Cataclysm, Armageddon and Apocalypse into a single Morning Porridge at the start of a week that promises to be market friendly? Of course it is! There is plenty of stuff to worry about, but when the noise sounds so positive, the herd that is the market will keep on fooling themselves.. The higher they climb, the further there is to fall…

Gold Prices stumbled earlier this week. It is a bursting bubble? Nope. Markets will remain uncertain – while the world’s geopolitical polarity is shifting Gold remains the safe-haven play. That shift is being accelerated by events as the stability that fuelled the last 80 years of growth is undermined by bad politics and division.

The Gaza deal is an extraordinary win for President Trump. Banging heads together worked – and may have created conditions for the Middle East to move towards reconciliation. But, we had another “judder” moment as the trade conflict he triggered with China threatens to overturn the USA’s economic resilience.

We’ve seen all the signs of crisis to come. Exuberant markets priced for perfection, valuations at mindboggling levels, AI spending trillions to make millions. Yet Gold, the universal risk-off asset just hit $4000. Wake up, smell the coffee…. While you still can..

It’s a mighty confusing market out there. Is the US headed for recession or boom? Is the AI bubble going to inflate or pop? Is the IMF about to be buried in bail-out requests? How do you follow the narrative, trade and invest into the news flow. Or is it time for a new approach – follow the money, less the story.

October is coming. It is the scariest month for markets. And there is much to be scared about in Q4; unsustainable narratives driving bubbles, inflation and stagflationary threats, political uncertainty, and a market priced for perfection. I yell “correction”, but in the dying phases of a euphoric market – no one can hear you scream!

Earlier this week the US Fed eased interest rates under pressure from President Trump. There are host of confusing signals around employment and price stability, but the Fed jumped anyway. The bond market sold-off – a polite growl that was just enough to warn it’s not happy about political interference and potential policy mistakes. When it barks.. it will be for good reason.