One year after the Hamas atrocities, the tragedy of Gaza and South Lebanon continue. The region remains on fire, and could ignite further conflict and instability including inflation, recession and impact the US election. To understand what happens next – how did we get here?

Markets seem unstoppable – but history is about mean reversions; usually through a deep correction or damaging crash. Storm clouds are on the horizon as the US election presages a period of inclement uncertain conditions. The next 4 years will be “interesting”, but let’s get through the next 4 potentially volatile months first. 

Beryl is the fastest, strongest and earliest hurricane to hit the Caribbean. The price of the humble potato will see substantial inflation as miserable harvests come in. What do these two apparently unconnected events tell us about inflation and risk?

Compare and contrast Boeing and Aramco. Boeing – an extraordinary example of corporate failure. In the Middle East, soon to be King, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia is using Aramco’s wealth to shake the current regional order.

It’s been an interesting week – book-ended by Israel-Iran conflict. But we’ve seen yet more let-downs in politics, bonds, interest-rates and markets, and perhaps more nails driven into the myth that is Tesla. Sometimes it just takes one waverer to trigger a rout. In the vacuum of markets, no one can hear you scream.

Assets Managers have gone quiet on ESG and Sustainability, under pressure from sceptical money and investors bored by climate change. That doesn’t mean the problem has gone away. The risks and the consequences for markets and prices remain enormous.

Farewell Alastair Darling and Shane MacGowan.

COP 28 has been getting pushback from activists upset big-business is attending. That’s possibly the best thing for the planet if the commercial sector embraces the challenges and opportunities raised by climate change!

Markets are at an inflection point: bonds are more attractive, but credit risks rise in a deflationary bust? Or should higher oil prices remind us what triggered inflation, and raise the risk of consequential Stagflation!

Analysts and big money say it’s time to reinvest in China on the back of growth and rising prosperity. But global headlines point to rising geopolitical confrontation which could see China sanctioned, or even a hot war with the US. The real issue may be China’s rapidly declining demographics.

Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.