The Rugby World Cup is a reminder of all that is good, exciting and honest about 30 folk beating the crap out of each other. Enjoy the frenetic mayhem! Meanwhile, what is John Authers trying to tell us. And where are we this 9/11?
The UK’s failure to balance regulation, oversight, and planning is highlighted by insane plans to dig a non-economic quarry in the centre of a prosperous village with no upside except to prioritise shareholders over residents.
The G20 Gabfest in Delhi will boost Modi and paint India as the nation everyone wants to engage with, but it also hints at the end of the current global financial order of the G20, G7, The World Bank, IMF and WTO – No matter, we can build something better.
Markets are at an inflection point: bonds are more attractive, but credit risks rise in a deflationary bust? Or should higher oil prices remind us what triggered inflation, and raise the risk of consequential Stagflation!
Up in London this morning I had a chat with a Fox. He smiled as we chatted about Davos on Drugs, but wasn’t interested in the appalling state of UK water infrastructure – but we should be! How has it happened – political failure writ large.
While the US is on holiday, its maybe time to consider the biggest threat to market-political stability in 2024 – the US electoral cycle. It’s a pretty binary – Trump or anyone else. At present Biden is setting up to lose – anyone else would likely win.
The news from China is unremittingly bad – a cataclysm of economic distress and woe. Combined with concerns on law and transparency, China is now off many investment lists. Yet it’s still a growing economy with a massive middle class of consumers. There are opportunities.
September's ARM IPO could be a “CFP” for markets if it breaks the current everything AI consensus (aka “bubble”). There are many reasons to think it could, because it’s basically Masayoshi Son rolling it with big aplomb in the Tech Casino.
Don’t underestimate the effects of the natural cycle of the year on markets – the pressure to perform in the face of increasingly uncertain news flow is driven by a sense of opportunities and an awareness of time – which for 2023 are running short.
Nvidia and Telsa trade on hopes and expectations, FOMO and huge PE multiples. They are very different investment propositions but reflect the bubble market. Maybe it’s time to revert to dull, boring, predictable returns in fixed income secured by real assets?
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