The Fed has fallen. What will negative real yields do the US economy? It will likely further fuel asset speculation and lead to renewed QE as global buyers exit the US bond market. Using inflation to wipe the budget deficit may even be part of the plan. The path ahead looks increasingly fraught. Been here before.

Trump’s supporters think he just played a blinder of masterstroke reversing tariffs. Those of us with clearer minds and an understanding of finance know the truth – Trump lost. The bond market punched him hard between the eyes.

 Trump’s inauguration will come and go. Lots of noise, 100 executive orders. No doubt we will be shocked. Then everything will settle and we will focus on the US/China Relationship and the US Treasury Market. The UK will be left wondering what, if anything, the “special relationship” now means.

Bond markets reflect facts. Equities are about stories. There is a shift in markets underway – where are rates, inflation and politics taking us? Traders want to see certainty – and that will be reflected in bond rates.

The US Presidential Election is the most important market/political event this year – but boils down to how a mere 170,000 Americans in key states and demographies will vote on Nov 5th. What they are thinking on the day will determine how markets play out. Understanding the election mechanics is key to spotting the opportunities.