Trump described Fed Head Jay Powell as "stupid" for not easing rates – Powell is playing safe, waiting for the Trump impulse to play through the economy. The standoff in Iran looks likely to prove Trump’s pivotal moment: is he a risk taker, or just noise? The stakes are massive - the upside is consolidation of US power, the downside includes acute embarrassment and MAGA disillusionment in the Presidency.

The Israeli strike on Iran has roiled markets. Not unexpected, but the consequences could have been much worse if the Israelis had used low-yield Tactical Nuclear Bunker Busters.

One year after the Hamas atrocities, the tragedy of Gaza and South Lebanon continue. The region remains on fire, and could ignite further conflict and instability including inflation, recession and impact the US election. To understand what happens next – how did we get here?

It’s become clear this week the market outlook has changed utterly – higher rates are now the new normal, and that will have consequences on demand at a time when supply remains in flux. Meanwhile, global instability is rising. Markets and populations need to understand reality – while campuses tear themselves appart it is Iran driving the horror in the Middle East, but good luck explaining it to your Keffiyeh wearing kids.

It’s been an interesting week – book-ended by Israel-Iran conflict. But we’ve seen yet more let-downs in politics, bonds, interest-rates and markets, and perhaps more nails driven into the myth that is Tesla. Sometimes it just takes one waverer to trigger a rout. In the vacuum of markets, no one can hear you scream.

Markets will breathe easy if Israel forgoes retaliation for Iran’s apparently failed drone strike, but Iran remains the fundamental crisis at the heart of the Middle East. Peace and prosperity will remain elusive while Iran plots regional instability.

Markets have not sold off on renewed Middle East conflict, but the geopolitical faultlines are being reinforced as it become clear this is war the US and Israel are fated never to win.

What does the Rugby World Cup tell us about markets? Expect the unexpected? Ignore nothing and don’t bet on favourites? Perhaps.. As the geopolitical threats pile upon each other, it’s time for caution. Forwards win games, but backs stop it being lost!

We need to be aware of the consequences of political failure and populism. What’s happening in the Middle East is a warning of how politics go wrong. We should pay close attention.

Events in Israel have been shocking. Its deliberate – Iran fermenting conflict to support its goal of Arab hegemony. It puts Saudi in an impossible position – and could move it closer to Russia and thus higher oil prices. Interesting times indeed. Hard Hats close.