At the back of all traders and investors minds is the question: “just how bad might the US Midterms be?" Relax. Things are never as bad as we fear, (though seldom as good as we hope). The mid-terms will be consequential, and no matter what the result are unlikely to do much to reverse the long-term decline of the US Treasury Market – the single most important market on the planet.

The tide of American Politics has turned dramatically extreme in recent days. The narrative is no longer about why Trump is haemorrhaging electoral support but has shifted to whether the Democrats can unite to win the Midterms in November and present a credible challenge to Trump’s MAGA successor in the 2028 presidential election. The coming gladiatorial contest between Right and Left populists will be watched closely by concerned global investors.

Donald Trump never disappoints in terms of “interesting”. MAGA/Trump might unravel, and Trump spontaneously combust, due to Epstein  – but conflict was what we knew Trump would bring to the table. The real risk to markets is probably the US Consumer. They are not as resilient as the rosy earnings season thinks.

Time this US election was over. The Morning Porridge predicts a narrow Harris Win, followed by lots of meaningless noise. To secure it, Harris could try the Lysistrata playbook – with the majority of American women supporting her, maybe it’s time they remind Trump supporting partners of where their best interests might lie…