Global conflict risks are rising. The wars in Ukraine and the Gulf are the openers. However, a global conflict for hegemonic power between China and the USA is more likely to take the form of “Grey” conflict than outright “kinetics” between them – triggering further inflation threats, political and economic disruption, and supply chain destabilisation driven by ongoing cyber-attacks, fake news and regional conflict. The resilience of nations will be the critical factor – and that means being prepared to defend themselves.

French political instability and it’s looming fiscal crisis will distract and delay the European project of a shift towards “strategic unity” in the face of a) the immediate security threats from Russia, and b) the long-term geopolitical shift towards China at the end of the Transatlantic American age. How Europe responds to the growing French threat could determine its economic outlook for decades.

The World shifted over the weekend. Trump’s 100% China Tariff threat was a snap reaction to the reality is China is now the key power in global trade, and holds most of the cards. There are significant risks ahead, not the least being the AI bubble popping – which would kill US sentiment as the whole stock market edifice will trumble.

Markets and the global economy are subject to how the world is changing – get used to it. Trump is not the cause – he just one symptom of how geopolitics, politics and technology are all undergoing periodic change.