Trump has deliberately escalated domestic protests in California into a test of National Will by federalising the Marines. What will it mean for markets? Global Investors will become become increasingly concerned at how distracted Trump is as the Bond Market looks increasingly unsustainable.
Global Trade is enormously complex. Trump has put 104% tariffs on China – which will directly impact US consumers. Shutting the door on global trade will inevitably trigger consequences. The biggest risk is to the bond market – and a stressed Treasury market when the US has $15 trillion to refinance in next 20 months is a really, really bad idea.
Nigeria is under attack by cryptocurrencies, says the Government. The Naira has collapsed as locals flee to Bitcoin and Tether – where “crypto-predators” are scamming them. Is this the future? Could it happen to the dollar market as the global economy de-dollarises, leaving a monetary vacuum? What will it mean for the mighty Treasury market?
Two things worry me: the consequences of a Commercial Property bust, and the potential of a US$ Bond Crash. Equities merely reflect dimly their relative value to real assets and rates – and will suffer accordingly. Not to worry though.. the IMF says no recession!





