Markets are treading water trying to figure out directions – some of the underlying narratives look alluring, but they are not all they seem. In confused, uncertain markets, the trick is to remain suspicious of what others are following.
The UN has declared a Code Red Climate Emergency. As we all know addressing climate change has enormous implications for investment strategies, but can governments collectively deliver the joined-up and effective policies required to save the planet? The jury is out…
Across the Occidental Economy there seems a trend towards political failure as polarization, sleaze and opportunism takes hold, even as electorates suffer from increasing inequality and declining prospects. As the threat of post-pandemic inflation rises, the ingredients are all there for further instability and labour strife. It’s all happening as the geo-political spheres of influence between China and the West are being redrawn.
Markets anticipate the end of pandemic, but the news flow from India highlights ongoing global crisis and Covid is here for the long-term. The risk of political instability from failed Covid policies is high. In the UK, political instability could ratchet higher on the rising tide of Tory sleaze and Dominic Cummings taking his revenge cold.