The US economy looks strong, robust and resilient. Investors are pouring billions into stock trackers believing it’s all rosy upside ahead. Under the surface there is enormous stress as consumers, corporates, banks and the government struggle with debt and its consequences. If something snaps….

The market has chosen to read the Fed 25pb hike as a positive sign we’re on the glide path to a soft landing – but what does the market know? The charts and common sense increasingly scream recession. Take your pick: deflationary bust or stagflationary crisis?