King Charles played a blinder in Windsor last night, making Trump feel regal. But the reality is Europe and the UK have difficult decisions to make. Do they remain aligned with a post-hegemonic USA slipping into autocratic polarisation, or do they seek closer Asian connections, including China? There are massive Economic and Geopolitical risks ahead.
Yesterday tremblors rocked global markets again after Israel bombed Qatar and Trump demanded Europe enact 100% tariffs on China and India. As America lashes out, It feels the world is tumbling towards chronic trade conflict and disruption – yet, yesterday the US stock market made yet another record high.
The UK is in danger of becoming the unloved Piggy-in-the-Middle in terms of new global trade and geopolitical alliances. While China and the US place the pieces on the board, the value of Airstrip 1 is unclear. We have chosen where we now lie. We have chosen badly.
The G20 Gabfest in Delhi will boost Modi and paint India as the nation everyone wants to engage with, but it also hints at the end of the current global financial order of the G20, G7, The World Bank, IMF and WTO – No matter, we can build something better.
The big story in the market has been the humbling of Indian conglomerate Adani. Who could have guessed? But the real issue isn’t that a company may have fooled the market over its value, but that the market never worked out how improbable the valuations were. Time to check up on risk management!
Political instability is turning into a global competition as Bolsonaro supporters storm Brazil’s Government, the CCP reopen China’s Borders to chaos, and the US Speaker deals with political hi-jackers to secure his seat. All will have consequences and should make markets nervous.
Markets anticipate the end of pandemic, but the news flow from India highlights ongoing global crisis and Covid is here for the long-term. The risk of political instability from failed Covid policies is high. In the UK, political instability could ratchet higher on the rising tide of Tory sleaze and Dominic Cummings taking his revenge cold.









