This year is shaping up to be a big one for IPOs, but just how sustainable will the market be if the speculative froth driving valuations dissipates? SpaceX will be the big one – it is a truly extraordinary firm, but after the noise, what’s it really worth?

When a firm losing $5 bln per annum is valued at $160 bln, what won’t it do to post a profit? OpenAI’s new investors expect much of Sam Altman. But what does the insane and widening income inequality at the core of the repeating US Tech booms say about Peak Free Markets?

There was a Judder Moment in AI last night. Microsoft’s numbers confirm the hype is played out - the reality is the AI everything rally is bleeding revenues and momentum. AI could see a cascading failure event bringing down startups, and triggering a reassessment of AI linked firms. Tesla – as the most hollow set of undelivered promises - is set to feel most pain.

It’s been an interesting week – book-ended by Israel-Iran conflict. But we’ve seen yet more let-downs in politics, bonds, interest-rates and markets, and perhaps more nails driven into the myth that is Tesla. Sometimes it just takes one waverer to trigger a rout. In the vacuum of markets, no one can hear you scream.

In the film of the Magnificent Seven, only three of the gunslingers survive. Which of the Big Tech names will be left in the dust? And which are likely to survive?

Nvidia and Telsa trade on hopes and expectations, FOMO and huge PE multiples. They are very different investment propositions but reflect the bubble market. Maybe it’s time to revert to dull, boring, predictable returns in fixed income secured by real assets?

“Leverage, Liquidity and Volatility upturn markets, triggered by policy mistakes, ignorance, hubris or plain getting it wrong. These are dangerous times as multiple issues threaten confusion – so some simple market mantras might help!”

The immediate financial market outlook is risk-off driven by Ukraine, followed by rising fears and concerns about inflation policy mistakes, wondering when to pick the bottom in the tech cycle to buy great ideas, why Boeing should be in jail, and longer-term concerns about where we are going in terms of transition.