The UK’s long-delayed Defence Investment Plan was a final humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer as he struggled to gloss over the gaping defence funding gap. But it’s not how much is spent, but what it is spent on that matters. The frenetic pace of Mil-Tec evolution in the wake of the Ukraine War highlights how the next war will likely be fought. It’s time for a complete overhaul on the defence establishment’s approach to rearmament.

The last two weeks have been fascinating. Iran increasingly looks a strategic blunder by Trump in the wider global hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. It increases the likelihood of instability, trade and economic disruption and the threat of kinetic conflict. Boy Scout time: Be Prepared.

This morning’s Porridge is given over to what my chum Rob Hillman’s modelling of the Pandemic economy teaches us about the unpredictable consequences of Trump’s Tariffs. Chaotic, but we are more resilient than we might expect. And very likely to backfire on Trump!

So much to write about this morning…. Just some of the questions are:

How might Kamala Harris and a closer US election change the economic and market calculus? What does the Crowdstrike omnishambles on Friday tell us about the uncertain foundations of global tech and its’ resilience to instabilities? What did we learn about the UK’s economic prospects from Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Sunday Morning’s BBC interview?