The War in Iran is a kinetic feature of the economic/hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. President Trump will lose because his Iran war is unwinnable. Iran won’t lose because it does doesn’t have to win. That’s a recipe for a forever war, and a definition of asymmetric warfare. The likely winner of a wider Economic War will be China. Energy and Supply Chains will determine the future.

Markets and the global economy are subject to how the world is changing – get used to it. Trump is not the cause – he just one symptom of how geopolitics, politics and technology are all undergoing periodic change.

One month till the US election – how prepared are markets for what comes next? Who will win? In the short-term the election will change little around fractured US politics and the strength of the economy – long term it may hasten the end of America as global hegemon.

The US Presidential Election is the most important market/political event this year – but boils down to how a mere 170,000 Americans in key states and demographies will vote on Nov 5th. What they are thinking on the day will determine how markets play out. Understanding the election mechanics is key to spotting the opportunities.