Yesterday’s UK inflation numbers hint the Bank doesn’t understand the modern drivers of inflation or how to address them. It leaves some stark likely outcomes: stagflation or a Reflationary Death Scramble. Neither are good.
Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.
The headlines could not be bleaker in terms of open political plots within Government and The Bank of England undermined internally and externally. This is how nations fall – this is not what the UK deserves.
The pace of US CPI inflation moderated slightly, but it’s too early for the market to conclude rate hikes are over. There are many imbalances still to resolve – especially in consumer credit. Meanwhile, the new UK premier’s clumsy attempts to blame the BOE raise questions.
