Global Oil Markets have shrugged off the supply threats. Markets seen unfazed by the economic consequences of trade ructions and tariffs. Rising instability elicits little more than yawns. Are we walking into a crisis?

Markets will breathe easy if Israel forgoes retaliation for Iran’s apparently failed drone strike, but Iran remains the fundamental crisis at the heart of the Middle East. Peace and prosperity will remain elusive while Iran plots regional instability.

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions are great fun, but the reality is 2024 is going to be about Elections, Oil and Energy Prices, Conflict and how China plays these three forces. China will dominate 2024 – for all the wrong reasons.

Is inflation dead or just resting? Are rates likely to remain higher for longer, or are we poised on the edge of a bond bull market? Everyone is watching energy and tensions around the Middle East. I suggest we worry about wages as well.

What does the Rugby World Cup tell us about markets? Expect the unexpected? Ignore nothing and don’t bet on favourites? Perhaps.. As the geopolitical threats pile upon each other, it’s time for caution. Forwards win games, but backs stop it being lost!

The last few days have confirmed we are in a Global Economic Energy War. It is remaking the global order – and will have significant long-term effects on Global Markets. As the sides shift, there will be winners and losers.

Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.

ESG tightened its grip on markets in a succession of wins over oil majors. Is that a good or bad thing? Probably better shareholders decide a company’s green objectives than them being set by bureaucrats, but there will be consequences.